Wednesday, August 15, 2007


Housing woes continue

Year-to-year sales off 11 percent for second quarter, despite price drop of 1.5 percent. In Southern California, sales are their worst since 1995.

My latest recession odds are 2-5 within a year and 5-4 in favor by the start of 2009.




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Money markets latest to catch the subprime bug

Even though money market accounts are supposed to be “safe” investments, it looks like at least one got tempted to dip its hand into the subprime cookie jar:

Sentinel Management Group asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to help it stop Sentinel's investors from withdrawing their money, according to CNBC. Sentinel doesn't manage money funds for retail investors. Rather, it helps commodity trading firms and hedge funds invest the cash they accumulate in short-term, interest-bearing vehicles, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Money funds, similarly, invest in short-term, high-quality obligations called commercial paper. But in an effort to gain a competitive edge, some companies that run the funds stretch a little further out on the risk spectrum. Though it's not clear yet what securities Sentinel holds, there has been speculation in the market in recent days that some money funds owned short-term paper — including mortgage-backed securities — issued by banks with exposure to problems in the subprime-mortgage market.

The problem is twofold. One, Sentinel doesn’t have the type of liquid capital to pay off many investors. Two, the commodities commission said it has no power to do what Sentinel wants.

And, the problem has its own shockwaves
Sentinel is not a mutual fund company, and should not be confused with Sentinel Funds of Vermont, which today posted at its website that it is “in no way affiliated with the Sentinel Management Group (of Illinois).” …

Spokesmen for Fidelity Investments, Vanguard Group and T. Rowe Price said their firms have no significant exposure to commercial paper backed by subprime mortgages.

If other money-market funds are exposed, watch out. Calls on money could become stampedes, which will only further tighten business liquidity and cut the availability of business credit.

Cross-posted at Socratic Gadfly.




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Campaign Video of the Day -- August 15, 2007

This Campaign Video of the Day has lousy production values, it is grumpy and very unfair, but John Edwards campaign team needs to watch it. I suspect the video reflects a perception of Edwards that is holding him back.

On John and Elizabeth Edwards on the Campaign Trail was posted by wyattmcintyer on August 14, 2007.



If you have a video you want to nominate as Campaign Video of the Day, please send me an email. Our address is proctoring.congress@gmail.com. The subject line should read Campaign Video of the Day.




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Woodstock 2007: The Times, They Definitely Have A'Changed

Thirty-eight years after the second-largest city in New York state assembled for three days of rock 'n' roll, drugs, nonviolence and general nakedness, The New York Times has reported that Max Yasgur's Bethel, N.Y., farm -- what's left of it -- is for sale for $8 million.

Roy Howard, 73, and Jeryl Abramson, 53, do not own the actual site where the Woodstock music festival took place. What they have is Yasgur's old house and acreage around it. Pieces of the original land have been sold over the years. Howard and Abramson are reported to have been reverent conservators of the property they had, for a while. They held "reunions" that included Melanie and Country Joe McDonald, and so forth. Now they're selling out and retiring in Arizona.

What became of the actual land that the August 1969 lovefest took place on? The Times reports:

The place where the event happened was sold to a nonprofit foundation set up by Alan Gerry, a billionaire entrepreneur and former Marine. He built an open-air performing arts center there with seating for 5,000 and lawn space for 12,000, an air-conditioned museum pavilion, a staff of guides and a kiosk where the hard of hearing can rent amplification devices. Smoking is not allowed on the grounds.

... There is lots of security. Any food that's brought in must be carried in one-gallon plastic bags. Camping is not allowed.


And -- stay away from the brown cappuccino. Man, it's way too strong.




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What I wouldn't give for a competent and functioning State Department

This is about as sane as that time Caligula made his horse a Senator.

The Bush administration has decided to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a "specially designated global terrorist organization.” This move will take place under Executive Order 13224, signed September 23, 2001. The EO authorizes the US to seize the assets of businesses, individuals and charities that the United States government identifies as having ties to terrorist organizations on the list. It also allows for the disruption of operations by foreign businesses that "provide support, services or assistance to, or otherwise associate with, terrorists."

The classification of the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization is the first time a military branch of a sovereign government has been so designated.

The driving purpose of this move is to impinge upon the Revolutionary Guard’s far-reaching business interests, and as a cudgel to wield against foreign companies that do business with the Revolutionary Guard, and individual IRGC members.

"Anyone doing business with these people will have to reevaluate their actions immediately," said a U.S. official familiar with the plan who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the decision has not been announced. "It increases the risks of people who have until now ignored the growing list of sanctions against the Iranians. It makes clear to everyone who the IRGC and their related businesses really are. It removes the excuses for doing business with these people."

Expect this to set off a great hue and cry among U.S. allies and trading partners that do business with the Iranian military branches. China is Iran’s number one trading partner, and Russia has strong business ties with the IRGC.


Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear proliferation expert at the Center for American Progress fears that this move could have a deleterious effect on diplomatic efforts, "It would greatly complicate our efforts to solve the nuclear issue. It would tie an end to Iran's nuclear program to an end to its support of allies in Hezbollah and Hamas. The only way you could get a nuclear deal is as part of a grand bargain, which at this point is completely out of reach."




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Tuesday, August 14, 2007


“Katrina” alert?

Tropical Storm Dean is projected to be a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, Category 3 by Sunday. Plus, current storm track computer models show it is likely to go across the western tip of Cuba, then into the Gulf of Mexico.

Let’s hope that FEMA actually is looking at tropical weather information from our weather satellites.




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