This was originally posted at my blog. Blue Girl read it and invited me to post it here as well (after breaking it into more digestible parts). While it may not exactly pertain to 'watching those we chose', I feel that the information is worthwhile. Besides, one of the most important tasks of a national government is to keep the nation safe. We should be urging our elected representatives to do what they can to prove these dire predictions wrong.
I should note that I am definitely NOT an expert in WMD; I'm sure Blue Girl -- with her military background -- has much more detailed knowledge (but if she tells you, she'll have to kill you). On the other hand, I'm not a neophyte either: I've been in safety and security for over thirty years. All opinions and any mistakes are mine alone.
This first section is an overview. The second part will discuss various types of WMD and their potential for use against the United States. In Part III, we'll look briefly at our preparedness posture and the societal impact of an attack, while Part IV will discuss the likely results of a WMD attack against us. Footnotes will follow Part IV.
I ran across a very interesting paper on the Internets a few weeks back. The UK’s Chatham House – more formally known as The Royal Institute of International Affairs – released a study called The CBRN System: Assessing the threat of terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons in the United Kingdom.
In about forty pages, researcher Paul Cornish not only provides a layman’s guide to weapons of mass destruction, but also examines how, why, and when each category of weapon might be used. Cornish also makes critical distinctions between military philosophies of use (and the conventional wisdom associated with those philosophies), and the philosophies to which terrorist groups might subscribe.
While Cornish’s report is aimed at a British audience, most of what he says is equally applicable to the United States. In this article, we will look at a brief history of terror and terrorism in the United States. We’ll examine Cornish’s study and apply his lessons to the situation here in the US. We will also compare and contrast Cornish’s study with other available research. Quotes from the paper will retain the British spelling.
REPORT OVERVIEW
Cornish’s report examines the four main types of WMD – chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear – and, to a certain extent, the precursor materials required to manufacture these weapons. Additionally, he discusses the complexity, construction, delivery and effect of different types of weapons.
Cornish makes the same claim as many other WMD/CBRN experts: that weaponizing these materials is complicated and expensive and therefore unlikely. But Cornish – and the others – miss one very important point: the goal of the terrorist is to instill terror, not necessarily to cause mass casualties (although that is certainly one way to achieve his goal). Given the right combination of commitment, materials, and resources, weaponization may be an unnecessary refinement.
TERROR, TERRORISM AND WMD IN U.S. HISTORY
The Federal Bureau of Investigation defines terrorism as, "the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a Government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.” [Emphasis added] Note there is no reference to casualties.
It is important to remember, however, the aphorism “One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.” For our purposes, a terrorist is a member of an identified terror group like al-Qaeda, or a group that is not an acknowledged, recognized component of a sovereign state. This includes religious, nationalist and revolutionary groups. In terms of the history of terrorism in the United States, our definition also includes home-grown extremist groups like militias, neo-Nazis, and other hate groups.
Of course, terrorism existed in the United States prior to September 11, 2001, as did the use of CBRN-type weapons: there were the bombings of the World Trade Center in 1993 and the Murrah Building in 1995, as well as at least one biological attack (Oregon, 1984). Earlier “terrorist” activities included the anarchist movement in New York City in the 1920’s (epitomized by Emma Goldman) and bombings by groups such as the Weathermen, the Ku Klux Klan, Black Panthers, and others in the ‘60’s and ‘70’s. While the US has so far been spared from chemical attacks, the Tokyo Metro was the target of a Sarin gas attack in 1995. Domestic terror groups that have not (yet) used “weapons of mass destruction” include anti-abortion activists, environmental and animal-rights activist groups like the Earth Liberation Front and Animal Liberation Front.
In fact, terrorism in the United States is older than the nation itself. The Boston Tea Party and other colonial actions leading up to and during the American Revolution could properly be described as terrorist in nature, as could occurrences like the Haymarket and Draft riots in 19th century Chicago and New York respectively.
A prime example of the difference between terror and casualties is the 2001 anthrax attacks: five dead and seventeen sickened (not mass casualties in the commonly-accepted use of the term), but even now – more than five years later – local or regional paranoia results any time a “white powder” shows up in a business, post office, or mail room. This instills terror in the populace, even when the powder is determined to be harmless. (The main reason we no longer have national paranoia with these cases is that they no longer garner national attention)
Moreover, one could look at the 1938 broadcast of H.G. Wells’ War of the Worlds for a classic example of widespread terror without any associated casualties. Needless to say, the broadcast was not intended to cause terror, nor was there any criminal intent behind the program. According to Wikipedia.org, “Hand cites studies by unnamed historians who ‘calculate[d] that some six million heard the Columbia Broadcasting System broadcast; 1.7 million believed it to be true, and 1.2 million were 'genuinely frightened'". The following morning, the New York Times reported:
A wave of mass hysteria seized thousands of radio listeners between 8:15 and 9:30 o'clock last night when a broadcast of a dramatization of H. G. Wells's fantasy, "The War of the Worlds," led thousands to believe that an interplanetary conflict had started with invading Martians spreading wide death and destruction in New Jersey and New York.
The broadcast, which disrupted households, interrupted religious services, created traffic jams and clogged communications systems, was made by Orson Welles…. This time at least a score of adults required medical treatment for shock and hysteria.
This “mass hysteria” resulted from a fictional radio play. In this day and age, even a small RDD (radiological dispersion device, or “dirty bomb”) could cause a nation-wide panic potentially involving tens of millions. For that matter a carefully crafted and placed rumor could start a panic – the gullibility of the American public has not decreased markedly in the last 70 years.
The most prevalent terrorist weapons in the United States have been assassination, arson and conventional explosives, not WMDs.
According to the FBI report Terrorism in the United States – 1999, the “modern era” of terrorism in the United States began in the 1960’s. Many of the terrorist acts that occurred during the 60’s were related to America’s involvement in the Vietnam War or the burgeoning Civil Rights movement and were committed by left-wing groups[1].
Domestic terror groups can represent right-wing orientations (Aryan Nations, militias, the “patriot” and “sovereign citizen” movements), left-wing (Weather Underground) or special interests (anti-abortion extremists, Animal Liberation Front, Earth Liberation Front).
