Northwest Republicans

Last saturday (May 5th), the Washington State Republican Party held its first Presidential Primary Straw Poll as part of a state party big-wig conference, and the results were pretty interesting.

Predictably, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich each polled less than or equal to 1 percent, and Duncan Hunter 5 percent. More interestingly, John McCain, Giuliani, and Romney only garnered 10 percent, 15 percent, and 16 percent respectively. Fred Thompson came away with 50 percent of the vote and isn't even officially in the race. Granted, this is only a (ridiculously early) survey of the local Republican elite, and of the 570 in attendance only about a third participated in the poll.

The wingers who gathered 5 percent or less can't be expected to have done any better - even the conservatives in Washington State aren't all that conservative, particularly when it comes to social issues, which make up the appeal of the Republican's marginal candidates. McCain's pro-escalation position on war has likely alienated many Washington conservatives who, I would imagine, are less supportive of Bush's excursion in Iraq than their compatriots in, say, Texas or Wyoming. I would have expected Giuliani to do better, and maybe even Romney too since they seem to appeal to those who are more center-right on the national political spectrum (and make up the majority of Republicans in the Pacific Northwest more generally).

Thompson's showing seems pretty outstanding, but in retrospect, I suppose it makes sense. Washington State conservatives (and West Coast conservatives more generally, I'd imagine) tend to follow more libertarian, neo-liberal veins than conservatives elsewhere. Our Republican delegation to Congress, and Republican candidates for other statewide offices like Governor (Dino Rossi from the 2004 race) and Attorney General (Rob McKenna) are often drawn from the business - or at least pro-business - communities. Mike McGavick, who ran against Senator Cantwell in 2006, was the former CEO of Safeco Insurance, and Rep. Dave Reichart (R - Bellevue) and Rep. Doc Hastings (R - Wenatchee, Yakima, Tri-Cities) all run on small government, low taxes, law & order platforms. Voters in Washington State tend to shy away from candidates who wear their Religion on their sleeves (John Carlson, 2000 Gubernatorial race against former Gov. Gary Locke) tend to lose.

An early straw poll from a weak state political party is unlikely to have serious implications for national trends, especially considering that the Washington State Republican Primaries will be held long after the nomination is clenched, it makes me wonder whether or not Fred Thompson might act as a spoiler for the Republicans. I think Giuliani and Romney would make pretty formidable Republican candidates in the general election, but Thompson doesn't seem like he'd hack it against an Obama, Edwards, or Clinton led ticket. Bob Dole looked great for Republicans on paper, and they couldn't have asked for a more experienced candidate, but he couldn't hack it against a popular, incredibly charismatic Democratic incumbent. While nobody in 2008 will enjoy the benefits of incumbency, and Fred Thompson is certainly not a shoe-in, it makes me feel good that, for once, it's the Republicans who are suffering from severe cleavages and their search for the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan might just kick them in the ass.