Is Keller (FL-8) Really in Jeopardy

I've been reading a few posts over the last few days and even a NY Times story that toy with the idea that Florida Rep. Ric Keller's seat might be in play. The conventional wisdom is that this district is ripe for a red-to-blue switch and they think Keller may be vulnerable in 2008. Let's go through the reasoning and I'll tell you why the CW is wrong.

Keller will be tainted with the Republican corruption brush. I don't buy into the "culture of corruption" argument that the Times put forward. When the Dems backed down to the CBC on William Jefferson and then didn't ask for his resignation when he was indicted, I think they gave up this argument. Yes, Tom Feeney is from the area and he's lawyered up but that brush isn't big enough to say that any Republican is corrupt, especially Keller.

He'll be hurt by the Republican-owned Iraq War. Nope. Keller was one of the few Republicans who came out AGAINST the surge, even speaking out against it in a floor speech. And, he broke again when he voted with the Democrats to adopt the 9/11 panel recommendations. On this, he looks exactly like every other Democrat who opposes the war but voted for funding.

He also broke ranks with the Republicans and voted for the increase in the minimum wage. This is especially important because his district is dominated by service jobs that traditionally (and in reality) pay minimum wage. This is more likely to hurt him in the primary which I'll get to later.

His district is not as red as many others. It's true that the 8th district is only slightly more Republican than Democrat. But these numbers are deceiving. In each election, a minimum of 16% more Republicans show up to vote than do Democrats in precincts in the 8th. And, past history tells.

When the seat was vacated by longtime Republican Rep. Bill McCollum, Keller was a relative unknown. His Dem opponent, Linda Chapin, had been a very popular Orange County Chairman. She was well funded and well regarded. Keller made a "towel head" miscue and still won the race. I lived in the district at the time and I can assure you, we were stunned.

In 2006, Keller, now the incumbent, ran against Charlie Stuart, another very well-known name in Central Florida. Stuart had significant funding and there was talk that the time was ripe for the red-blue switch. Even with other Republican districts turning blue, Keller won the election by 7%.

Neither Democrat running, Mike Smith or Sierra Club activist Corbett Kroehler, has anywhere near the name recognition or the support. Although Smith works at leading Dem fundraiser John Morgan's law firm, Todd Long (the Republican challenger) also worked there. I think John will split the baby on this. After all, he contributed to Republican Charlie Crist in the gubernatorial race.

The DCCC needs to face this fact: This district was one of the first to start the tidal wave that turned Florida from blue to red. It has been Republican since 1984 and it has only gotten redder as time has passed.

Keller is going back on his self-imposed four term limit. It is correct that Keller has made himself a little vulnerable by putting himself up for re-election in 2008. This was the reason that a Republican challenger, Todd Long, gave for entering the race. The argument that it's time for a change will work in favor of only one person in the race and that is Todd Long.

Which brings me to where I believe Keller is vulnerable - the primary. At this time, only Long has officially announced. The Times opines that other popular local Republicans could enter the race. I see it with state Senator Daniel Webster but not with County Mayor Rich Crotty. But, any of these three is a real danger to Keller.

They are all well-known so name recognition will be as high as Keller's. They have great funding support. Long is wealthy and well-connected. He's already drawing dollars away from Keller. The same will happen if the others jump in.

Keller is especially vulnerable because of the positions that aligned him with Dems. Long is much more conservative than Keller and the Repubs in the district HATE that Keller voted for the minimum wage. That he turned against his party on two votes and on the surge will hurt him.

Remember. 66% of Republicans approve of the job GWB is doing. I think that makes them insane but it also makes Keller vulnerable in the primary. Not so in the general.