Thursday, September 6, 2007

Temp employment: a leading recession indicator

Temporary agencies are slumping in their hiring. That last happening in the 1992 and 2000-2002 recessions.

That’s not all. Overall, U.S. hiring is the slowest in four years. Mish has this interesting comment on that:

Here is the key idea from the above article: "The slowdown in hiring was not related to last month's credit market turmoil.”

If he’s right, watch employment numbers before the end of the year. Since mortgage resets don’t peak until the middle of next year, a continued slump in employment will indicate not only a recession, but how bad of one.