Friday, November 9, 2007

Josh Marshall muffs first chance to explain Peak Oil

Early Thursday, the TPM editor wondered aloud how much the Bush/Cheney saber-rattling on Iran was driving the rapid ramp-up in oil prices.

I told him it, even if combined with Turkey’s saber-rattling on the Kurds, probably was no more than $10/bbl, and even that much effect was due to world supply tightness. I then noted I had written my most recent newspaper column about Peak Oil, T. Boone Pickens’ prediction of $100/bbl oil and related issues.

I implored Josh to take the opportunity to familiarize his readers who aren’t up to date with it on Peak Oil, including through referencing a website such as The Oil Drum. I bluntly juxtaposed Peak Oil to global warming by saying the U.S. could grind to a halt before the world burns to a crisp, to link two metaphors.

Well, Josh took a whack at it this evening, but kind of whiffed. I cite this sentence as proof:

Over time spiraling prices will lead to more investment and eventually more supply.

No, no, no, Josh.

King Hubbert factored in rising prices driving more marginal production techniques in more marginal production areas as part of his Peak Oil prediction methodology.

And, the statement above, to me, just doesn’t get the basic bell curve fact of Peak Oil, either.

I e-mailed Josh again, re the quoted statement of his: No. We will then, globally, be on the downslope of the bell curve and past the peak. Many analysts not named Daniel Yergin believe we are at that point RIGHT NOW.

I hope Josh, in the posts he promises for Friday, does a better job. We need major bloggers to discuss this more in hopes of getting politicians to honestly discuss it AT ALL.