Thursday, November 8, 2007

Some early primary predictions of mine

1. Bill Richardson will break 15 percent in one of the following, and/or 10 percent in two of the following — Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — to maintain a claim to be a legitimate candidate.

2. Ron Paul will at least threaten the 20 percent mark in New Hampshire due to strong independent turnout for him.

3. Joe Biden will “reconsider his options” after South Carolina.

4. Some Republican candidate WILL run Giuliani-Robertson attack ads soon, most likely in South Carolina, to try to wrong foot Giuliani on Robertson’s 9/11 cause explanations. Among major or semi-major candidates, McCain would seem most likely to benefit, though if Paul finds he is polling well in New Hampshire, since he has given his own 9/11 causal explainer, he might just do that.

5. McCain will break 20, if not 25 percent in South Carolina; Huckabee will break 15 percent, as older, more likely to vote Christian Rightists will show they don’t necessarily agree with Pat Robertson (Giuliani) or Bob Jones (Romney.)

6. Chris Dodd will break double figures in either Iowa or New Hampshire, and indicate his own continued viability.