Saturday, December 22, 2007

Presidential Primary Predictions

OK, slow news weekend, holiday coming up and all that, so since I'm finished my Christmas preparations, I'm going to get a jump on the presidential primary predications coming January 1 (since the Iowa caucus is Jan. 3) and make my own semi-baseless predictions:


Huckabee is peaking perfectly but broke. He'll win Iowa, drop to third in New Hampshire then disappear for lack of money.

McCain will turn up a surprising second in Iowa, rake in the dough from grateful Wall Street types terrified of Huckabee and win the nomination.

Romney and Giuliani will tie for third in Iowa, with Mitt coming a not-close-enough second in New Hampshire and disappearing in South Carolina. Giuliani will have a foam-at-the-mouth public freakout over losing to hick Huckabee, tank in New Hampshire, and spend the rest of 2008 tearing down McCain and whining about how he should be the nominee.


Edwards will win in Iowa, possibly drop to a close second in New Hampshire, rebound in South Carolina and win the nomination.

Obama will come in second in Iowa, a close first or second to Edwards in New Hampshire, a further-back second to Edwards in South Carolina, and end up the vice-presidential nominee.

Hillary will come in a close third to Edwards and Obama in Iowa, but tank in New Hampshire as her supporters reel from the shock and her money dries up.If Dodd's on the ballot in South Carolina, he might beat her.

A couple of notes on methodology, or rather the lack of any:

I've been predicting Iowa and New Hampshire would kill Hillary's campaign since last spring, about the same time I predicted Edwards/Obama would be the nominees. At the time I thought the desperate repug wingnut freakazoids would nominate Brownback. Although it seems that Huckabee has stepped into that darling-of-the-jayzus-humpers position, believers don't really choose the republican nominee; Wall Street does.

Yes, my prediction for Edwards has a little wishful thinking in it, as I'm a strong Edwards supporter, but I also think McCain is the strongest possible republican nominee and therefore hoped his summer-fall swoon would be permanent. No such luck. As Rudy, Mitt and Fred reveal their fatal flaws to the faithful, and as Huck's skeletons begin to spill out of the closet, politically rational republicans (the ones with the money and power) are realizing McCain is their only hope.

It's 12 days to the Iowa caucuses; 19 to the New Hampshire primary. At the speed this race is changing, that's plenty of time for Tom Tancredo and Joe Biden to leap out front.

But what's the fun in waiting until it's all over?

Cross-posted at BlueGrassRoots.