The Commander-in-Chief is Incompetent

This is the most important story of the day, bar none:

President Bush Wednesday promised that U.S. naval forces would deliver humanitarian aid to war-torn Georgia before his administration had received approval from Turkey, which controls naval access to the Black Sea, or the Pentagon had planned a seaborne operation, U.S. officials said Thursday.

As of late Thursday, Ankara, a NATO ally, hadn't cleared any U.S. naval vessels to steam to Georgia through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, the narrow straits that connect the Mediterranean and the Black Seas, the officials said. Under the 1936 Montreaux Convention, countries must notify Turkey before sending warships through the straits.

Pentagon officials told McClatchy that they were increasingly dubious that any U.S. Navy vessels would join the aid operation, in large part because the U.S.-based hospital ships likely to go, the USNS Comfort and the USNS Mercy, would take weeks to arrive.

"The president was writing checks to the Georgians without knowing what he had in the bank," said a senior administration official.

"The president got out in front of the planning when he talked publicly about using naval forces," said a second senior administration official. "At that point we need to look at treaty obligations, our bilateral relations with the Turks and others, waterway restrictions and what kind of ships might be appropriate and usable — something like the Comfort or something already in the Med (Mediterranean)."

The U.S. officials requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly, because the issue is diplomatically sensitive or because the administration takes a dim view of officials who reveal its internal deliberations.

What we have here are two members of the Bush Administration who are, for lack of a better way to say it, telling the American people that their President is incompetent. They are leaking this with the full knowledge that it will humiliate Bush and make him look out of touch, uninformed, and ridiculous. To think that he could snap his fingers and send the US Navy into the Black Sea reveals that this man has no grasp on reality and no one advising him who knows what the hell it going on.

This should be screaming from every paper, news show and website--the President doesn't know what he's doing, and he's trying to send military forces into a situation he does not understand.

--Warren Street

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At the End of the Day

Funniest headline I've seen all week....Excuse Me? Is This the Right Way to Wank?

The government of Belarus has told the U.S. Ambassador to leave the country, and recalled it's own ambassador from Washington. A spokesman for the State Department said that the US ambassador had not been formally expelled, and would remain in Minsk while the situation is reviewed. The move comes in the wake of the US levying economic sanctions against Belneftekhim, Belarus' oil monopoly.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lashed out after charges were made suggesting that Turkey ended its ground offensive against the terrorists of the PKK who find safe haven in Iraqi Kurdistan, bowing to pressure from the US. Erdoğan threatened to step down from his post if anyone can prove the allegations true.

Anyone who really gives a damn about the Israeli-Palestinian peace process needs to go read this Op-Ed by Maria Appokova right now. For the U.S. administration, a peace agreement in the Middle East is a matter of principle. It has become part of its strategy in the global struggle against terrorism in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. This issue is as important as the overthrow of former President Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. Bush simply cannot leave his office without drawing a line under the main project of his whole presidency...and the suffering of others be damned.

The British are coming! The British are coming! Some 200 British Army and Royal Marine officers have descended on Holton in northeast Kansas to take part in joint counterinsurgency training with their American counterparts. The joint training has taken pace for four years now. This is the second year it has been conducted in Holton.

Australian authorities are bracing for a flood of cheap heroin from Afghanistan after opium production rose approximately 34% last year according to a UN survey. Addiction treatment professionals are already reporting an increase in Afghan "brown tar" heroin in Australian cities. As is always the case, purity is increasing, prices are decreasing and deaths by overdose are on the rise. Just another unintended consequence of Bush foreign policy.

After 28 centuries, the patent is expired (I should probably issue an insensitivity warning before I go on, so consider it done...) The Balkan Republic of Macedonia wants to join NATO, and Greece is promising to veto their membership bid if the country doesn't change it's name, and Macedonia has taken out full-page ads in key newspapers to plead their case. In 1995, the Greek government and representatives of the fledgling Macedonian republic signed an agreement in which the republic of Macedonia added a constitutional amendment that stipulated the nation made no claim to the region of Greece know as Macedon, or Macedonia. The nation also changed it's flag at the request of Athens. When Yugoslavia disintegrated in the 1990's, Greece allowed the nation to join the UN under the acronym FYROM (Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia) but will not let the nation into NATO using it. Now, I can read a map, and there is plenty going on in that part of the world to get excited about before a nation like Greece gets too worried about a tiny nation like Macedonia usurping it's territory. Get real.

It's time to debate and redefine roles and missions, whether the turf-protectors at the Pentagon want to or not. A new report (.pdf alert) from the House Armed Services Committee "hopes to jump-start the arduous process of breaking down those sorts of walls — not only within the Pentagon, still operating largely under a Cold War construct that is grappling with new concepts such as cyber-warfare, but in an intelligence community that is dealing with the complexities of tracking shadowy terrorists around the world, and a State Department that is shifting gears from “genteel diplomacy” to demanding volunteers for provincial reconstruction teams." I remember 1986, when Goldwater-Nichols was supposed to be the end of western civilizations if interoperability was even worked toward. Yet even after it was achieved, life went on. New recruits enlisted, new commissions were granted, children were born, billets were assigned, careers progressed, retirements were accepted and pensions were granted, and now interoperability is SOP. In short...We got over it. And todays Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines will as well.

Climate Change is affecting Antarctica The calving of a gigantic iceberg - 34 KM by 20 KM - from the Pine Island Glacier last summer, while impressive, is becoming something of a frequent occurrence as the gigantic ice shelf that extends into the ocean off the western edge of the continent is crumbling. Not only that, but the glaciers on the landmass are speeding toward the coast. Scientists are getting concerned at a rate that rivals the acceleration of the glaciers. If the melt-rate continues, or increases, many experts fear a catastrophic rise in ocean levels.

The latest Congressional Power Rankings are out and boy! Is Rick "indicted on 35 counts" Renzi's face red! He is in last place. The cleaning lady who vacuums unused conference rooms enjoys slightly more authority in the halls of congress than he does. Last place used to be held by my congressman, Emmanuel Cleaver, back when he was a freshman and the Publican kneecappers were running the show. He is now in the top half with breathing room, at 189.

Speaking of my congressman, he is calling on national party chairman Howard Dean to help cool the rhetoric before Democrats ruin their chances to win the White House. Cleaver penned a letter to Dean, urging him to appoint a special committee of party luminaries to mediate squabbles, like the chase for superdelegates, and such as the fight over seating Michigan and Florida delegates. He told Jo Mannies of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the prospect of a seven week ‘fist fight’ over the Pennsylvania primary sends chills down his spine.

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Turkish Parliament votes Overwhelmingly to Authorize Cross-Border Incursions in Pursuit of Kurdish Terrorists

The Turkish Parliament has voted to authorize the government to launch cross-border incursions into Iraq to pursue PKK terrorists that find safe-haven in the Kurdish areas of Iraq.

The motion passed with 507 votes in favor and 19 opposed, and the passage brings Turkey one step closer to entering the conflagration in Iraq and gives the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan one year in which to launch offensives against Kurdish terrorists who carry out attacks in Turkey from safe havens in Iraq. “After so many incidents, we’re at a point that our patience has run out,” said Cemil Cicek, a government spokesman and a member of a special council on terrorism, speaking in the parliamentary chamber.

Bear in mind that over the last two decades, Kurdish terrorists have inflicted at least ten times the toll America experienced on September 11, 2001 on the Turks. Under US law, the PKK is a terrorist organization, and militias are not – but the U.S. military attacks the militias and not the PKK. (This coddling of the PKK undermines the seriousness of a so-called war-on-terror, to say the very least.)

[keep reading]

Terrorist organizations are defined by a willingness to attack civilians in an effort to achieve political objectives via public pressure. The PKK routinely commits acts of terrorism against Turkey in order to promote their separatist agenda.

“We are making it very clear to Turkey that we don’t think it is in their interests to send troops into Iraq,” President Bush said at a news conference at the White House. “There’s a better way to deal with the issue than having the Turks send massive troops into the country.”

But Turkish officials say that recent diplomatic efforts have not succeeded. Turkey signed a security agreement with Iraq in September, but since then, more than two dozen Turks have been killed in rebel attacks, some of them civilians, and the government is under strong public pressure to act.

Turkey is out of patience and not at all interested in negotiating with the terrorists of the PKK. They are only interested in actions that would eliminate the PKK as a threat to the national security of the Turkish state.

This is going to be interesting, and the next few days will set the tone of Turkish-American relations for the remainder of the Bush administration. And keep in mind…The die for preemption was cast with the United States invasion of Iraq, and frankly, George ‘aWol’ Bush and his cast of cultural cretins have so degraded the status of the United States that their warnings and preening are about as effective as the Big Lebowski bellowing at the Dude “Get a job, Sir!”

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About That Turkish Election

The Turkish elections are over, and the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) walked away with a landslide, garnering nearly 47% of the vote and securing 340 of the seats in the 550 seat parliament. This is sufficient to allow the AKP to rule without needing to form a coalition government. The election was a setback to the secular establishment and the Turkish military.

The probability approaches one that the hostile overtures by the Turkish military on the Iraqi border were posturing and preening in the run-up to the elections. Now the danger lies in Prime Minister Erdoğan feeling emboldened and overstepping, initiating hostilities across the border into Kurdistan and setting off an avoidable crisis.

Erdoğan declined to mention a possible cross-border operation but said necessary steps would be taken in the fight against terrorism, which he said was a long-term task.

He also pledged to step up the fight against “criminal gangs” believed to have links with some state officials and institutions.

The election was held against a backdrop of growing nationalism and calls for the military to cross the Iraqi border and quash the Kurdish terrorists of the PKK that find safe-haven in the Kurdish areas of Iraq. The PKK has engaged in a persistent campaign of terrorism across the Anatolian region of Turkey for years. These terrorist attacks have killed over 35,000 Turks over the past two decades (that is more than ten times the loss of life America sustained on September 11, 2001, just to offer perspective.)

One of the first issues the new government will have to deal with will be whether or not to stage an offensive into Iraq over the objections of the United States and the Iraqi government.

The election doubled as a referendum of Erdoğan’s handling of a stand-off with the Turkish military last spring that had the military threatening to step in and nullify the election if the secular way of life in Turkey were threatened by a president and prime minister from the same party, rooted in political Islam.

"Our democracy successfully passed a significant test in a manner that would constitute a model to the world and proved its maturity. Our democracy emerged stronger. The winner of the elections is democracy, security and stability," Erdoğan told supporters packing a street outside his party headquarters.

“Our nation confirmed that the AK Party represents the social center. This is the first time a party has managed to increase its support while in government in 52 years,” he said.

Erdoğan also assured the secularist electorate who did not vote for his party that their choice is respected. “I understand the message from those who did not vote for us. Rest assured. … There will be no concession on the basic characteristics of the republic,” he said. “Our word to you is that we will embrace all of Turkey with no discrimination.”

The results of yesterday election require a bit more analysis than just “who won and who lost” due to how the Turkish electoral system is established.

To take seats in the Turkish parliament a party must overcome a 10% election threshold. This means that three parties will hold seats – the AKP, the CHP and the MHP

Although it won more votes than it did in the past, the AK Party is set to get fewer seats given the fact that the parliamentary seats will be distributed among three parties now, instead of two as was the case after 2002 elections. The AK Party is still certain to form a single-party government, controlling, however, fewer seats than required to change the Constitution or elect the president on its own

The Turkish elections are over, and the results are in. But what it all means will be played out in the months to come.

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So it never happened

UPDATE: Don't take my word for anything. Go read Juan Cole on the subject.

Remember how I said I would be following the Turkish invasion into Iraq all day, and then I didn't post on it again? That's because no details ever emerged.

That's because it didn't happen.

The AP and Reuters ran with a rumor from the DEBKAfiles. A gossip column for the intel world. Frankly, had I known that was MSNBC's ultimate source I would never have posted about it. But it was a gutcheck - and now I know just exactly how jumpy I am about the chess match we are playing with Iran and Turkey with a checkers man at the board.

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The Whole Iraq Dynamic Just Shifted

This has the potential to be really, really bad. Our NATO ally Turkey just put their ball in play in Iraq. Thousands of Turkish troops just crossed the border into Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish guerrillas who launch terrorist attacks against Turkey from bases in northern Iraq.

The United States has invested heavily in the de facto Kurdistan, it being the only bright spot that can be pointed to. (Overlooking that inconvenient bit about the Kurds thinking it’s a grand idea to try their hand at genocide where the Assyrian Christians are concerned.)

So now we are facing an unthinkable. It is entirely possible that within a few short hours the United States will be faced with picking a side between Allies. Turkey has a modern, highly trained professional military. They are not to be sneered at. They are, for want of a better word, pretty much badasses to a man. The Kurds, we have trained and armed. Turkey has the capacity to roll over the Kurds in short order. The side with an Air Force always wins. Remember that.

Something else to remember: Iran has Kurdish relations. This could, if not defused, give Iran entry into the Iraq war. When I said this has the potential to get really, really bad...This is what I meant.

I do know one thing without a doubt...this is certainly no time for the hamfisted incompetence of Condi Rice.

This will pretty much be my topic today. Look for updates and fresh posts frequently with details and background about the region coming soon at Blue Girl, Red State, but I won't monopolize the front page here.

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Call me a mushy-headed liberal, but I don't think you are supposed to treat your friends this way...

It is high time that America takes a hard look at what is happening in Turkey – and accept some responsibility. The internal struggles in Turkey are a direct result of Bush’s pathetic foreign policy. Some folks seem to think that once an ally, always an ally, Turkey is a member of NATO, and wants to join the EU, so screw ‘em – we’ll do what we want and they will like it. And even if they don’t, who cares?

That is a dangerous position to operate from, and nearly impossible to defend.

Turkey is every bit as important as an ally today as it was during the Cold War. It is the only secular and Democratic Islamic state, and the Turks in general have looked favorably on America and the freedoms enjoyed by our people. Turkey is a vital counter-balance to the Islamic fundamentalism that many middle-eastern states espouse. After a long military dictatorship, they began to taste and enjoy the freedoms Americans take for granted for themselves. But foreign policy cock-ups by the gang that can’t shoot straight have threatened Turkey on so many levels…

First of all, the Turks are none to thrilled to have a civil war raging on their south-east border. They are also understandably apprehensive about the emboldened muscle the Kurds are flexing, too.

The quasi-independence of the Iraqi Kurds have become a flashpoint for Kurdish nationalism. Kurdish terrorists are using Iraq as a base for attacks inside Turkey. This situation has prompted the Turkish military to publicly threaten that they will cross the border and clear out terrorist bases.

(I, for one, am horrified at the prospect of the Turkish Army rolling into Northern Iraq and engaging the Peshmerga. The Turks, of course, would annihilate the Kurdish forces. But oh, good God, that would be a bloody, brutal clash, the likes of which modern humanity has not beheld. The brutality that the world would witness would likely be the envy of the Serbian butchers of the 1990’s.)

These rumblings from the Turkish armed forces has led the United States to issue stern warnings, urging the Turks not to do it, and spawned a heavy blast of anti-American editorials in Turkish newspapers, accusing the U.S. of hypocrisy. The Turks, of course, justifiably question why the U.S. can chase "terrorists" 6,000 miles away, but have the temerity to tell the Turks they can’t do so, when they are fighting terrorist on their own border.

Turkey has national elections coming up this year, and the negative perception of the United States in Turkey – only 12% of Turks have a positive view of America, down from 52% before the Iraq war – stands to influence the elections unfavorably. Apprehension is high that the Islamic party will consolidate it’s power on the country by electing an Islamic party president.

Complicating matters further, the Turkish military has weighed in and asserted that the country will remain secular, even if it does so at gunpoint. They have warned that if an Islamic party president is elected, a coup is a done deal.

It’s freakin’ surreal when you contemplate the possibility that a Middle Eastern country with over 80% of the country practicing Muslims threatens a coup to prevent an Islamic government from taking power.

And today, a million people took to the streets to protest the trend away from secularism.

We need to be paying attention to this, and taking input from our ally seriously – or we may not have that ally anymore. This is a huge deal people. Turkey is strategically, culturally, geographically, politically - (hell I could come up with adjectives until sundown) - important. If George Bush manages to go ahead and screw us out of that alliance, we may just end up going the way of the Ottomans. Wouldn’t that be ironic?

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