Is Keller (FL-8) Really in Jeopardy

I've been reading a few posts over the last few days and even a NY Times story that toy with the idea that Florida Rep. Ric Keller's seat might be in play. The conventional wisdom is that this district is ripe for a red-to-blue switch and they think Keller may be vulnerable in 2008. Let's go through the reasoning and I'll tell you why the CW is wrong.

Keller will be tainted with the Republican corruption brush. I don't buy into the "culture of corruption" argument that the Times put forward. When the Dems backed down to the CBC on William Jefferson and then didn't ask for his resignation when he was indicted, I think they gave up this argument. Yes, Tom Feeney is from the area and he's lawyered up but that brush isn't big enough to say that any Republican is corrupt, especially Keller.

He'll be hurt by the Republican-owned Iraq War. Nope. Keller was one of the few Republicans who came out AGAINST the surge, even speaking out against it in a floor speech. And, he broke again when he voted with the Democrats to adopt the 9/11 panel recommendations. On this, he looks exactly like every other Democrat who opposes the war but voted for funding.

He also broke ranks with the Republicans and voted for the increase in the minimum wage. This is especially important because his district is dominated by service jobs that traditionally (and in reality) pay minimum wage. This is more likely to hurt him in the primary which I'll get to later.

His district is not as red as many others. It's true that the 8th district is only slightly more Republican than Democrat. But these numbers are deceiving. In each election, a minimum of 16% more Republicans show up to vote than do Democrats in precincts in the 8th. And, past history tells.

When the seat was vacated by longtime Republican Rep. Bill McCollum, Keller was a relative unknown. His Dem opponent, Linda Chapin, had been a very popular Orange County Chairman. She was well funded and well regarded. Keller made a "towel head" miscue and still won the race. I lived in the district at the time and I can assure you, we were stunned.

In 2006, Keller, now the incumbent, ran against Charlie Stuart, another very well-known name in Central Florida. Stuart had significant funding and there was talk that the time was ripe for the red-blue switch. Even with other Republican districts turning blue, Keller won the election by 7%.

Neither Democrat running, Mike Smith or Sierra Club activist Corbett Kroehler, has anywhere near the name recognition or the support. Although Smith works at leading Dem fundraiser John Morgan's law firm, Todd Long (the Republican challenger) also worked there. I think John will split the baby on this. After all, he contributed to Republican Charlie Crist in the gubernatorial race.

The DCCC needs to face this fact: This district was one of the first to start the tidal wave that turned Florida from blue to red. It has been Republican since 1984 and it has only gotten redder as time has passed.

Keller is going back on his self-imposed four term limit. It is correct that Keller has made himself a little vulnerable by putting himself up for re-election in 2008. This was the reason that a Republican challenger, Todd Long, gave for entering the race. The argument that it's time for a change will work in favor of only one person in the race and that is Todd Long.

Which brings me to where I believe Keller is vulnerable - the primary. At this time, only Long has officially announced. The Times opines that other popular local Republicans could enter the race. I see it with state Senator Daniel Webster but not with County Mayor Rich Crotty. But, any of these three is a real danger to Keller.

They are all well-known so name recognition will be as high as Keller's. They have great funding support. Long is wealthy and well-connected. He's already drawing dollars away from Keller. The same will happen if the others jump in.

Keller is especially vulnerable because of the positions that aligned him with Dems. Long is much more conservative than Keller and the Repubs in the district HATE that Keller voted for the minimum wage. That he turned against his party on two votes and on the surge will hurt him.

Remember. 66% of Republicans approve of the job GWB is doing. I think that makes them insane but it also makes Keller vulnerable in the primary. Not so in the general.

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Freshman Democrat from Florida Targeted

And so it begins.

Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Allen West will try to redefine long-distance campaigning if he launches a Republican congressional bid for the nationally coveted Palm Beach-Broward seat of freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Ron Klein.

West says he'll announce his plans next week, then take off for a final five-month stint in Afghanistan, where he has been working for two years as a contractor advising the Afghan military.

So, our first Florida target, Congressman Klein (FL-22) might face a retired military officer who is contracting in Afghanistan. On the face of it, this seems like a good recruitment on the part of the GOP. Retired military, novel long-distance campaign angle.

But that's only the first take. There's this:

West, 46, drew national attention in 2003 after he fired a pistol near the head of an Iraqi detainee to try to scare him into divulging time-sensitive information about a planned ambush of U.S. forces. The Army relieved West of his command and fined him $5,000. He retired after 20 years of service and received an honorable discharge.

Now, the wingnuts may love the torture aspect but FL-22 is not that red. A lot of Repubs down there think that Bush is a disaster and this probably won't play well. But, of course, that's not all.

There's this:

As a candidate, he hopes the 2003 controversy translates into a national fund-raising base. West, who is black, also hopes his rare status as a GOP candidate of color generates national interest - and money - for his campaign.

He's probably right about national success from the wingnuts but I wonder if the Harold Ford phenomena will kick in. This area is also very white, WASP-ish and this is Florida, after all. Although it's only slightly red, it remains to be seen whether the GOP can support a black candidate in that district.

Alcee Hastings (FL-23) is black. While his district is adjacent to 22, it's one the poorest districts in the state while 22 is one of the richest (not just in Florida but the entire nation).

Interesting times down there.

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This is the guy Kay Barnes has in her sights

A quick visit to CongressPedia provides focus to and reasons for why Sam Graves should be unseated in the next election.

He consistently gets a 100% approval rating from the National Right to Life Committee, and a “Zero” from NARAL.

He consistently votes the interests of the right-wing special Interest group Americans for Tax Reform (the Grover Norquist policy thugs) gives him a score of 100 on a 100-point scale. Taxpayers for Common Sense, however, only gives him a score of 17.

On gun issues he is in the NRA’s stable of reliable votes, earning a grade of A. Organizations backing gun control give him failing grades.

His full voting record can be found here, along with complete text of bills. The most recent are at the top.

And I didn’t even get into his nefarious connections with the disgraced and indicted – but still shameless – Tom DeLay and the thousands of dollars of PAC money DeLay funneled his way.

An interesting aside that I discovered when I waded into the fever-swamp of the Graves record: The Sunlight Foundation rated the official websites of congressional members in February of this year. Web sites were rated on a 100 point scale, evaluating content, usable information and updates on legislative activity; as well as legally required disclosures about travel and personal finances. A score of 40 was considered passing.

Graves received a 32.

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If You Liked Her as the Mayor, You'll LOVE Her in Congress!

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Meet my Beloved Mayor. Her name is Kay Barnes. She will be exiting city hall gracefully after two wildly successful terms in office on May 1, leaving on a high note with a popularity rating that has been phenomenally high all eight years she has been in office. Her success in office is evidenced by the cranes punctuating the skyline, and the revitalized downtown.

She is going to take Sam Graves seat away from him in November 2008, and then KC will have two former mayors in the Congress.

I simply find it a wholly intolerable situation that Sam Graves (R MO 06) has a seat in congress in the first place. The word 'apostasy' seems an understatement when applied to that situation. The man is an embarrassment to Missourians and an offense to decent, thinking people everywhere. He is not our finest offering; that is certain. Since election night 2000, I have been plotting his political demise from the district to the south.

I live and vote in the Missouri 05/State Senate 10. My zip code is the bluest Missouri has to offer. My zip code is literally – and figuratively – as far left as the state goes. I want this blue tint to spread, because we have it pretty damned good, and I think all my fellow residents should be so fortunate. Being a liberal, I want to share, not just hoard the good stuff for myself. In this case the good stuff is responsive and responsible Democrats elected to office. Part of that good stuff I want to share is Kay Barnes.

I always have an eye cast toward future elections. When Kay Barnes sold her Ward Parkway mansion and moved north of the river a couple of years ago, I took note. She moved from the Missouri 05 to the Missouri 06. The 05 is solidly Democratic and currently represented by Rev. Emmanuel Cleaver II – Mayor Barnes predecessor at City Hall. A congressional bid in the 05 after her wildly successful time in the mayors office would have most likely involved a primary challenge to a sitting Democrat. Why would she do that when she could gain a seat for the Democrats and unseat an embarrassing stereotype in the process?

Graves has not had any serious competition since taking his seat. Sarah Jo Shettles earned the endorsement of the KC Star in the 06 midterms, but she garnered less than 40% of the vote.

Kay Barnes would not be such an easy opponent. And with vast personal wealth, she would be able to push back in the media against the Graves slime machine. Prime Graves: His opponent in November, Ms. Shettles, once sold advertising for Omni magazine. Because Bob Guiccioni owned Omni, he charged that she had worked for the porn industry. He is a typical right-wing bully, and his low-rent tactics would wither in the face of a pro like Barnes.

The Missouri 06 is largely rural, covering area from KC North all the way to the Iowa line, and reaching east to within a hundred miles of Illinois. Vast – but empty. The population growth that is happening in the MO-06 is all happening in Kay Barnes neighborhood – or Kansas City North.

She will go into the race with higher name recognition than anyone he has yet faced, perhaps with name recognition higher than Mr. Graves himself. Additionally, there has been very little negative reporting about Kay Barnes in the entire eight years she has been Mayor.

This is the race that will turn Missouri purple, after too-long in the red. It will shift Missouri’s nine-member House delegation to 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Our Senate delegation is split, and will be for the foreseeable future (McCaskill, Democrat, just elected in Class I and Kit Bond, Republican, Class III).

The Washington Post agrees with me:

The district's electoral history suggests the potential for real competitiveness. Although President Bush won the 6th relatively easily in 2000 and 2004, Sen. Claire McCaskill showed that the district's voters are willing to vote for the right Democrat. After losing the district by more than 20 points in her 2004 gubernatorial race, McCaskill narrowly carried it in 2006 over incumbent Sen. Jim Talent (R).

The Virginia Tech massacre turned the spotlight last week to gun control, a political hot potato that has been dormant in recent years on the national stage. But cross a presidential campaign with the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history, and you're going to get a gun debate -- another volatile wedge issue to define the crowded 2008 field.

Mayor Barnes will have credibility on the gun issue – KC has a lot of gun crime, and she and her Mayor Pro Tem Alvin Brooks have been effective on the issue on the local level. Her experience as a mayor of a large, urban area with a gun problem will be an asset, and the events of the last week have primed the long-overdue debate.

One thing is for sure – a farmer in Mercer County that hunts deer, quail and pheasant – and who sends the kids off to one of the state schools at Columbia or Springfield or Maryville or Warrensburg – is not identifying with the image of the V-Tech shooter staring into the camera, brandishing his guns and babbling incoherently. They more likely identify with the parents of the victims. Kay Barnes has dealt with the issue in real-time. Sam Graves has, for the last six years, offered mealy-mouthed platitudes and pablum.

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