Arctic Sea Ice: an ecosystem in collapse

It's September, and all you weather wonks and wonkettes know what that means...the summer melt is for all intents and purposes over, and it is time to visit the National Snow and Ice Data Center and assess the state of sea ice in the arctic. This years news is frightening. This summers melt was the most extensive of any year since 1978, when the data was gathered the first time.

Let's start by defining what sea ice is. Sea ice is any ice floating in the ocean that formed from sea water. (Icebergs are not sea ice - they are pieces of glacier that have broken free.) Sea ice forms and melts with the polar seasons. While both arctic and antarctic sea ice are important parts of the ecosystem and vital to birds and mammals that rely on them for habitat; arctic sea ice appears to have a greater impact on climate regulation via heat exchange, and is important in the regulation of the salinity of the ocean and the moisture content in the air. During the winter months, it insulates the relatively warm ocean water from the frigid arctic air. The amount of moisture in the air determines the amount of cloud cover and precipitation received.

The satellite data is now available for this years melt, and it reveals that the regional ice cover is the lowest it has ever been. Previously, the worst year for sea ice was 2002, when it was 4% lower than any point since 1978, and 14% lower than the mean for the years 1979-2000. (Serreze et al. 2003). Historically, the low-ice years have been followed by returns to near-normal conditions, but 2002 was different. It was followed by two more low-ice years that almost matched the melt record of 2002, then a new record low was set again in 2005. When the data was tabulated for 2005, it was determined that the summers-end sea ice was diminishing by approximately 8% per decade, and was projected to be gone entirely during the summer months by 2070. That date will be adjusted to a point much nearer when the final results of this years data are tabulated.

The graph above is an updated time series of daily ice for 2007, as compared to the previous record, set in 2005 and the 1979-2000 average. Since this graph was generated on September 3, an additional 180,000 square kilometers (69,000 square miles) of sea ice have melted, although the day-to-day loss has slowed considerably, and the absolute minimum has likely occurred, or will any day. The minimum cover has occurred as late in the year as September 25. On September 10, the ice cover stood at 4.24 million square kilometers (1.63 million square miles), falling yet further below the previous record absolute minimum of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles) that occurred on September 20–21, 2005. The Northwest Passage became accessible a few days ago, and is still open.

Models of greenhouse warming have long shown an "arctic amplification" effect, and that climate change will be most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean. The loss of sea ice is accelerating, and the phenomenon is driving itself. Look at the photo of sea ice on the right. Water is dark, and ice is white. White ice reflects the heat of the sun back to space, dark water absorbs that light/energy and it is stored in the oceans in the form of elevated temperature. Expanses of dark water absorb massive amounts of the suns energy through the summer, and this heats the upper ocean. As air temperature drops in the winter, that energy is released back into the atmosphere, which increases air temperature, which slows the formation of sea ice...and so it goes.

The health of an ecosystem can be assessed by how well it's top predator fares. In the arctic, the top predator is the polar bear, and polar bears are not faring so well these days. Two years ago, researchers spotted polar bears swimming as far as 95 kilometers from shore, and the percentage of bears sighted in the water jumped from 4% to 20%. The carcasses of drowned polar bears have washed ashore and been recovered, and on post mortem examination, they show signs of starvation. Instances of cannibalism among the bear population have been reported as well. The species has been officially added to the endangered list, but it is entirely possible that the polar bear has passed the tipping point and will not survive in the wild. An ecosystem that loses it's top predator is an ecosystem in collapse. The collapse of the arctic ecosystem is something we should all be nervous about, because the effects will be far reaching, not just localized or isolated.

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A Drop in the Bucke...er, Tank

I ran across this article today in the Detroit News and was - frankly - unsurprised. The House Oversight Committee has opened another investigation into the workings of the Executive Branch:

The U.S. Department of Transportation secretly lobbied dozens of members of Congress in recent weeks, urging them to join the Bush administration in opposing California's request to impose its own strict fuel efficiency regulations, according to a House investigative committee.

Using a one-page script and a list of auto facilities obtained from the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, a trade group that represents automakers, staffers at the Department of Transportation called nearly every congressional member from Michigan and Ohio, urging them to oppose California's request[*], according to records released this week by the House Oversight Committee. They also targeted other auto-heavy districts and governors in at least seven other states.

While federal law bars government officials from lobbying lawmakers on issues before Congress, there are no such restrictions on regulatory questions, such as the California waiver.

Still, the lobbying suggests an "improper hidden agenda" because it comes as the administration is making "an independent assessment of the merits" of California's request, U.S. Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., chairman of the oversight committee, said in a letter to Transportation Secretary Mary Peters...

...Until now, the Bush administration has not taken a public position on the California waiver, but the records released by Waxman show the Department of Transportation mounted a fairly extensive opposition effort that essentially supports automakers.

The Department of Transportation turned over 71 pages of e-mails and other records to Waxman's committee, which began investigating last month after a House staffer gave the committee a voice mail received from Heideh Shahmoradi, a special assistant for governmental affairs at the Department of Transportation...

...The lobbying blitz came ahead of a June 15 deadline for submitting comments to the EPA on California's request. [Joe] Knollenberg, [Candace] Miller and five other Michigan congressional Republicans sent a letter to the agency urging it to reject the waiver.

"The stakes for Michigan and American manufacturing could not be higher," the letter said. "The EPA should not allow California and other states to make a mad rush to saddle the auto industry with technologically infeasible mandates"...

...Joan Claybrook, director of Public Citizen, criticized the campaign. "How is the EPA going to make an independent decision if the Transportation Department is lobbying to oppose it?"

Read the whole article for the full content. I really have no informed comment at this time regarding an increase of fuel standards versus economic impact, and that's not really what this comment is about...The fight over fuel and emission standards is one of those wonky things that the average American cares about only in a vague manner - not that they shouldn't care more, mind you - but it lacks the sexiness of the politicization of the Department of Justice or the outing of a CIA covert operative. As (possible) scandals go, it's a drop in a much bigger bucket**.

What this article (and investigation) does, however, is to further highlight the modi operandi of the Bush Administration: Press or puncture the legal and ethical envelopes that are necessary for a properly functioning democracy and then mislead and deceive to avoid accountability. When being held to account is inevitable, as in the case of Scooter Libby's multiple convictions, use whatever legal loopholes are available to lessen the impact on the Inner Circle and shrug off any criticism...there will always be another professional wrestler or useless socialite to attract the public's attention.

And, even larger than that, is the issue of how the American government has been co-opted by business interests in such a way that government operates as an extension of those businesses...How else can you explain the apparent lobbying by the Department of Transportation on behalf of the automobile industry? You'd think that foreign and domestic auto companies have lobbyists with contacts in Congress that can express the same sentiments...I know that buying elected officials' votes has been around as long as there have been elected officials to buy, but our government institutions like the EPA or DOJ should be above and independent from partisanship, ideology, or the fiscal concerns of business.

Finally, I'm left with the same set of questions, only asked to different members of this administration...from the article:

The Transportation Department withheld 53 e-mails from the oversight committee. [DOT spokesman Brian] Turmail said Peters did not personally lobby any members of Congress on the issue.

Well, who were the persons in the DOT that lobbied members of Congress? Who directed them to do so? What is the DOT's rationale for withholding those messages?

I feel that these hearings won't get much coverage, but it would be interesting to hear the responses to those questions.

*The request by California is to establish limits on greenhouse gas emissions and create a higher standard of fuel economy. The adoption of these standards cannot take effect without a waiver from the EPA, hence the lobbying effort...Also, eleven other states want to adopt California's standards.
**Hence the title. Clever me.

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