In this final part, we'll take a look at how the United States might respond to a WMD attack. And by "respond", I mean societally, not militarily. Militarily, there is only one "acceptable" response to a WMD attack, and that is retaliating with a similar weapon. Since we do not stockpile chemical, biological, or radiological weapons, that leaves nukes as the only viable option.
Should a terrorist -- acting alone or in concert with others -- manage to perpetrate a WMD attack against the United States, all hell will break loose. Certainly, if a specific nation can be pinpointed as the source of the attack, that nation would be wiped from the face of the earth (and I don't think most people would shed a tear).
If, however, an individual or a non-national group like al-Qaeda perpetrate such an attack, against whom would we retaliate? Of course, with the current administration, that might be a moot point (after all, Iraq had nothing to do with 9-11, and even george w. bush finally admitted it).
Anyway, those are thoughts for another post. Part IV of this series looks at the societal responses.
RESULTS OF AN ATTACK
If a terrorist group were to use a weapon of mass destruction against the United States, the actual impact would depend on a number of factors, among them:
- The type of weapon used;
- The size or strength of the weapon;
- The number of weapons used;
- The location attacked; and
- Weather conditions.
Chemical Weapon
Depending on the type of agent used, the immediate effects would probably be localized, but the psychological effects could potentially be national in scope. For instance, if a nerve or choking agent (such as sarin or phosgene) were released in the Javitts Convention Center in New York City during one of the many large conventions or trade shows held there, there would be hundreds or perhaps thousands of initial casualties. First responders would be encumbered by protective gear, and would find their efficiency greatly reduced. Again, depending on the type of agent, victims may flee the scene, spreading the agent beyond the scene of release. Inauspicious weather conditions could also spread the agent beyond its original position, again enlarging the contaminated area. If the nature of the attack could not be promptly determined, medical facilities might not implement appropriate isolation techniques in time, thereby contaminating the very facilities and personnel most critical to an effective response. Delayed or improper decontamination at the scene would endanger rescuers. Scene decontamination and other mitigation efforts could turn into a long-term process, effectively denying the use of possibly critical infrastructure.
Politically, the backlash would be considerable. The populace might assume that the government was “asleep at the wheel”, especially in light of all the activities undertaken by various government agencies in the name of terrorism prevention. The current administration, based on its history thus far, would probably respond with further restrictions on personal freedoms, civil liberties and legal rights, bringing the nation one step closer to the police state that many on the left are already predicting.
Biological Weapons
Because many biological weapons have significant incubation periods before symptoms present, there is a much greater risk of the contaminant being spread far beyond the initial release point. Again, medical facilities would be overwhelmed, especially if the specific antigen were not immediately identified; unfortunately, this is likely to be the case, as most American physicians do not have much knowledge of, or experience with, biological warfare agents, nor are they trained to think in those terms when confronted with unfamiliar symptoms.
Tom Clancy’s novel Executive Orders postulates a terrorist attack against the United States using the Ebola virus, which is a virulent hemorrhagic fever, with a mortality rate of approximately 80%. The delay in identifying the agent was due, in part, to physicians initially diagnosing patients with flu or similar semi-benign ailments. By the time a correct diagnosis was made, victims had dispersed across the country, infecting virtually all parts of the nation.
Even if someone were to simply re-create the 1984 salmonella attacks, the effects would still be considerable. As we have seen with the recent E. coli outbreaks in restaurants, correct diagnosis of the condition may be delayed, with possibly tragic results. The economic consequences alone could potentially be staggering.
Again, the likely political implications would be significant, with many of the same responses as noted above for a chemical attack.
Radiological Weapons
Ever since the beginnings of the Cold War, Americans have learned to think of radiological attack in terms of nuclear weapons; the current administration drives this point home even today, with comments about “the smoking gun being a mushroom cloud.”
A relatively simple radiological dispersion device, detonated in a major urban area, would cause widespread panic, with thousands or millions trying to flee the area. Rioting, looting, and a complete social breakdown would almost certainly ensue causing additional fatalities and injuries.
Fortunately, such a weapon would be readily identified, thanks to DHS’s emphasis on terrorist use of WMD. The drawbacks include a significant lack of expertise in the first responder and medical communities, insufficient protective gear, and lack of sufficient medical resources.
Additionally, the more sensationalist sectors of the media would almost certainly blame Islamic extremists and thereby fan the already considerable fear and hatred of Moslems in their audience.
Nuclear Weapons
Should a terrorist group manage to detonate a functional nuclear weapon in the United States, we would see reactions similar to the above, but multiplied many times over. Surviving first responders and social service agencies would be overwhelmed almost immediately; medical facilities would be swamped with thousands of victims, most of whom would remain untreated. Societal norms would be discarded, and we would descend to a Darwinian survival mode. The government would almost certainly be unable to restore any semblance of order without imposing martial law.
Decontamination and mitigation efforts would be delayed and possibly ineffective. The scene of the attack could be rendered uninhabitable for years or possibly centuries (the area around the Chernobyl reactor will be unsafe for human entry for hundreds of years).
The economic and political consequences would be virtually incalculable, depending on the specific location attacked. Local governments – even if they were to survive the attack – would cease to function, and would have little or no recourse other than some version of martial law. State governments in the affected area would probably experience similar paralysis. Based on proven deficiencies in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, expecting prompt, effective Federal assistance is a pipe dream.
CONCLUSION
No expert believes that we have seen the last of terrorist attacks on American soil, and most experts agree it is only a matter of time before some terrorist group develops or obtains a weapon of mass destruction and uses it against the United States. When that time comes – and it is “when”, not “if” – American society will be unprepared and will not be able to effectively cope with the attack, or its aftermath.
In fact, it is entirely conceivable that the only segment of American society that would survive is the “survivalist” movement, composed primarily of far right wing anti-government extremists, white supremacists, and militia groups. As the main segment of American society left intact, they would guide the recovery efforts and, hence, change the face of America into something completely different from what it is today.
End Notes
[1] There has been little terror activity from the left of the political spectrum since the 1980’s, due in part to the effectiveness of the government in infiltrating these organizations. The decline of the worldwide Communist movement may also have robbed some left-wing groups of their ideological foundation and patronage.
[2] The two-letter abbreviations are military codes, based on the country of origin (first letter) and position in a development sequence; For example, tabun was developed in Germany (Gx) and was the first agent developed by the Nazis (xA), and was followed by sarin, or GB.
[3] This is not meant to imply that only the Middle East breeds terrorists. As we have seen with Jose Padilla, John Walker Lindh, Richard Reid, and others, terrorists and their sympathizers can come from any cultural or ethnic background. Reference to individual members of any political, ethnic, or religious group does not imply that all members of that group are terrorists. Terrorists represent a small minority in any larger social context.
[4] There were 2700 employees in the South Tower, and another 1000 in 5 World Trade Center.
