The not-a-senator factor and early handicapping of the 2008 presidential race

Will the not-a-senator factor continue to be a factor in 2008? (John Kennedy and Warren Harding are the only sitting senators in more than a century to be elected president.) Parallel to that, will the governorship factor, or some sort of “executive” factor, be a plus?

If so, don’t be surprised to see Romney and Giuliani continue to run high on the GOP side, despite the various degrees of distaste they generate within the Religious Right. Thompson has been out of the Senate long enough to get half credit on this issue, perhaps.

On the Democratic side, Clinton has been in the Senate long enough for it to probably tell against her, while Obama’s brief tenure is probably too short to hold much against him. I’m not sure about how Edwards’ one term, and a couple of years out of the Senate, now, will play out.

The only Democrat who can make serious claim to the “executive” issue is New Mexico governor Bill Richardson. But, beyond him still seeming a second-tier candidate at this time, he has a well-rumored (Bill) Clinton problem with a few women around the statehouse in Santa Fe.

At some point, Giuliani is going to self-destruct. So, we’re looking at Romney or maybe Thompson against Obama, most likely.

Of course, this political trend could change at some point. After Washington and John Adams, we had four former Secretaries of State move up (looking at Jefferson that way rather than as pre-12th Amendment vice president).

Cross-posted at Socratic Gadfly.