Thursday, July 19, 2007

Only 16 Weeks Left for Beshear to Lose 23 Points

No, I'm not trying to jinx the Democrat apparently destined to bury Gov. Ernie Fletcher in a historic landslide.

I'm trying to keep Kentucky Democrats from throwing premature victory parties, ignoring the campaign, forgetting to vote and waking up on Nov. 7 to discover that once again the Democrats have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

SurveyUSA's latest poll on the governor's race has Steve Beshear leading Fletcher 59 to 36, with only five percent undecided.

Check out the details - Beshear leads Fletcher in every single sub-category (age, race, sex, region, politics, etc.) except Republicans, Conservatives and people who oppose expanded gambling. And even 43 percent of people who oppose expanded gambling support Beshear, who has made expanded gambling a centerpiece of his campaign.

Beshear sits comfortably with more than 50 percent in every category he leads.

For pity's sake, Beshear even leads Fletcher among Republicans who voted in the primary for one of Fletcher's opponents: 57 percent of Anne Northup's voters and 40 percent of Billy Harper's voters support Beshear.

But here's the killer: 14 percent of people who voted for Fletcher in the primary now support Beshear.

Of course, the poll also has four percent of the people who voted for Beshear in the primary now supporting Fletcher, but that polling point was probably a UK fraternity prank.

Kentucky political campaigns traditionally don't really get going until after Labor Day, but that five percent undecided has got Democrats waaaaaay over-excited. Even if you grant Fletcher all the undecideds plus the entire five-point margin of error, they babble, Beshear still wins by 8 points.

If the election were held today, that is.

Beshear's a smart, savvy guy with minimal baggage who's run a near-perfect campaign since January. No Democrat in the state would have a better chance of knocking Fletcher off his throne.

It's still almost 16 weeks. 110 days. 2,640 hours. 158,400 minutes.

And every one counts.