Rubbing It In

I will leave it to the fine writers of the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Louisville Courier-Journal to talk about Governor Ernie Fletcher's gracious concession speech.

Here, we're gonna wallow in schadenfreude. Just how bad did Ernie lose?

• Fletcher is the first sitting Kentucky governor to lose a bid for re-election.*
• Out of 120 counties, he took 28. Twenty-three of those are in the south-central "Old Fifth" district where Democrats stay deep in the political closet. Even in overwhelmingly republican Wayne County, Ernie won by only four votes.
• Ernie and running mate Robbie Rudolph both lost their home counties.
• Ernie lost the 10 biggest metropolitan areas in the state.
• Ernie lost all six Congressional Districts.
• Ernie's losing 18-point margin is short of a record, but Beshear's 619,000 votes are the most ever garnered by a gubernatorial candidate in the state.

* OK, OK: Ernie's only the second Kentucky governor to stand for re-election since the 1992 constitution change permitted it. Geez, you people are picky!

But the biggest loser of the night was Kentucky's Republican Party. Not only is Kentucky now a purple state poised to turn deep UK Wildcat Blue next year, but two of the big winners are Democratic up-and-comers poised to win big races in the future.

(More after the jump.)

Attorney General-elect Jack Conway is not yet 40, and watching him light up the crowd last night it was easy to see him in eight years accepting victory as Governor. And doing the same in 2024 as President.

Re-elected State Auditor Crit Luallen got more than just cheers; the whole crowd sang along to her theme song "Kentucky Woman." The moment the polls closed last night, Crit became the front-runner to challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell next year.

Mark Nickolas has the scoop: apparently DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer is telling people Crit is definitly running and will have the DSCC's full support.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'll believe Crit is running for another office immediately after winning re-election when I see her signature on filing papers in January.

Cross-posted at BlueGrassRoots.

There's more: "Rubbing It In" >>

Preview of Great Democratic Things to Come

Friends, neighbors, Kentuckians: Our long Commonwealth nightmare is over.

Beshear-Mongiardo 59 percent, Fletcher-Rudolph 41 percent.

Nowhere near the record for a gubernatorial victory, but more than enough to make Fletcher concede before 10 p.m.

I wasn't in Little Rock on election night in 1992, but I imagine the feeling was the same as it was at the Convention Center in Frankfort tonight: throats raw from cheering, tears of joy, the overwelming rightness of it all.

More tomorrow, but for tonight, just remember: Kentucky has gone with the winner of the Presidential Election every time since 1964. With a Democrat back in the Governor's mansion, the Bluegrass State is Blue once again, and 2008 will be the republicans' Waterloo. In Kentucky, and throughout the nation.

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass.

There's more: "Preview of Great Democratic Things to Come" >>

Gay-bashing Robo-Calls Getting National Coverage

Hard to get away from Kentucky politics in either the MSM or the blogosphere today. While AP, CBS and CNN are covering Ernie's approaching history-making disaster, Talking Points Memo, Crooks and Liars, TAPPED, and Lawyers, Guns and Money are covering the gay-bashing robo-calls sent out yesterday by someone who did not vote for Steve today.

TPM has put its Election Central reporters on the case, and they report that someone in the Beshear campaign traced the calls to a for-hire 800 number, but hit a dead-end there.

Brett Hall, former Fletcher campaign manager and press secretary who got fired last year for dropping the F-bomb in a recorded conversation with a reporter, remains a primary suspect. TPM also notes that former Karl Rove aide and Kentucky native Scott Jennings has recently returned home, though he denied involvement in response to a TPM inquiry.

Meanwhile, Page One Kentucky is rejecting the claim that the calls' lack of a "paid for by" disclaimer does not violate Kentucky election law.

We’re close to determining the source of the calls. And contrary to what Kentucky Registry of Election Finance has unfortunately told some people, it is illegal not to have a disclaimer on electronic advertisements. That includes telephone calls advocating the election or defeat of a candidate. Cite: KRS 121.190(1); 32 KAR 2:110. We remind the culprits that they’re required to file their independent expenditure with the KREF.

And don't forget Media Czech at BlueGrassRoots, who scooped everybody on this story yesterday and will be live-blogging from the Beshear-Mongiardo election party in Frankfort tonight starting in two hours.

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass.

There's more: "Gay-bashing Robo-Calls Getting National Coverage" >>

Goal: 64.9 percent, 246,017 vote margin

UPDATE BELOW

In 1987, Wallace the Weasel Wilkinson beat John Harper by 231,533 votes, taking 64.8 percent of the total.

In 1991, Brereton Jones beat Larry Hopkins by 246,016 votes, taking 64.7 percent of the total

Can Steve Beshear break either of those two modern records for gubernatorial victories?

If all he does is win by the thinnest of margins, he will have already set a record as the first challenger to unseat an incumbent governor running for re-election.

But considering that Kentucky governors have only been running for re--election since 1999, that's not saying much.

No, beating The Weasel's margin will be much more satisfying, since it was The Weasel who took the nomination away from Steve in 1987.

246,017 votes, 64.9 percent margin - that's the goal.

Polls close in 12 hours, 54 minutes.

UPDATE, 7:50 a.m.:Election Weather: It's sunny and in the 40s all across the state. NOT typical November weather, and practically unheard-of for election day.

Either global warming is real, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster has blessed Steve Beshear's campaign.

There better be pasta at the party tonight.

Polls close in 10 hours, 10 minutes.

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass.

There's more: "Goal: 64.9 percent, 246,017 vote margin" >>

The Job's Not Over 'Til the Gay-Bashing's Done

UPDATE BELOW, UPDATE II

This morning, 36 hours before the polls close, the calls started.

“For the first time in 20 years the homosexual lobby proudly endorses a Kentucky candidate for governor, Steve Beshear. Beshear is receiving major support from out-of-state gay activists and has publicly committed to same-gender relationships, employment of more homosexuals in state government including teachers, and support for homosexual adoption of children.

If you believe these rights are fair please vote for Steve Beshear for governor. Visit Fairness.org."

Everybody who believes those calls came from Louisville's Fairness Campaign or any other actual gay-rights group, stand on your head. And sing God Bless America. Backwards.

So far, no one's been able to trace the calls to any number, and of course soon-to-be-former Governor Ernie Fletcher's campaign is claiming innocence. An innocence that rings a little hollow after a comment like this from Ernie's camp:

"I don't know who would be impersonating the Fairness Campaign," said spokesman Jason Keller. "Obviously we wouldn't support anybody misrepresenting themselves in a call." Having said that, Keller added that the Fairness Campaign's political action committee did endorse Beshear, and "certainly there's a fair question to be asked there."

Getting off a little there, bubeleh?

I'll let the Fairness Campaign speak for itself:

Desperate opponents of Steve Beshear have stooped to a new low by using deceptive automated telephone calls falsely representing themselves as the Fairness Campaign. Fairness has received dozens of calls from concerned Kentuckians who have reported receiving these misleading and inaccurate phone calls.

The Fairness Campaign has issued the following statement: "We believe Kentuckians are looking for a governor who will work to bring Kentuckians together to improve the lives of all people in the Commonwealth. That's why CFAIR, the Committee for Fairness and Individual Rights, has endorsed Steve Beshear for Governor. These last minute dirty-tricks should remove any doubt about who fair-minded Kentuckians should elect as their next Governor on November 6."

Neither CFAIR nor the Fairness Campaign are making any automated calls in this election. Voters who receive an inappropriate call should report it to the Secretary of State's Office, the Attorney General¹s Office and their local Board of
Elections.

No fear on that score. In addition to whatever response the Beshear campaign is launching as I type, Kentucky's liberal bloggers are furious. They've already drafted complaints to the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance and legal motions to take to court the minute they track down the source.

The call (hear a recording at BlueGrassRoots) is illegal on its face, as it lacks the required "this call paid for by -" disclaimer.

PageOneKentucky reports that someone is trying to put the blame on Democrats.

We’ve received reports that the robocall originates from a telephone number owned by Lee Murphy of Poli-Tech Consulting - an organization that works only for Democrats in Kentucky - including Dan Mongiardo’s 2004 campaign. I spoke to Mr. Murphy moments ago and he confirms that he’s absolutely not involved, saying he “would never work against a Democrat” and that he’s actually friends with Mongiardo.

So where does this leave us? It appears a Republican or anti-Beshear lackey has an ax to grind and is wrongly claiming Poli-Tech is behind the robocall.

Someone is trying to cover up their tracks.

I'll update as I can.

Polls open in 11 hours, 50 minutes.

UPDATE, 5:38 p.m.:Good News, Bad News Department: Polwatchers reports that Beshear has a responding recorded call up and out.

"Ernie Fletcher is spreading lies to scare you," says Rev. John Dunaway, a retired Baptist minister who has volunteered in the Beshear campaign. "Don't fall for the last-minute dirty tricks."

However, Rich Miles at BlueGrassRoots notes that's not all the message said:

I got a robocall from a "Rev. John Dunaway", whoever he is, telling me not to believe the nasty lies about Steve Beshear. That Steve was raised in a family of preachers, and believes marriage is between a man and a woman, and all that. (SNIP) Ain't it a cryin' shame that we live in a state and a nation where either of those calls was possible or even conceived of?

UPDATE II, 7:38 a.m.:CRAP! Mark Hebert of WHAS 11 in Louisville did some actual reporting, calling the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance, and discovered that the calls may not be illegal after all.

The call contains no disclaimer, and doesn't have to, according to Sarah Jackson, executive director of the Registry of Election Finance. Jackson says there's no state law requiring candidates, parties or independent groups to identify themselves in phone calls, like they do on printed materials, radio and TV ads.

Well then, I think a state law requiring candidates, parties or independent groups to identify themselves in phone calls, like they do on printed materials, radio and TV ads, should be at the top of Steve's list for the General Assembly session that starts in two months.

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass.

There's more: "The Job's Not Over 'Til the Gay-Bashing's Done" >>

Ernie Fletcher Gay?

Unfortunately, probably not. But under the New Rule that those who publicly bash gays or otherwise demonstrate blatant homophobia have thus proven they are closeted, self-hating homosexuals, Incumbent Republican Governor Fletcher has outed himself.

As Sam Wise at BlueGrassRoots puts it:

He's sunk this low. Soon-to-be-ex-governor Ernie Fletcher is now gay-bashing Steve Beshear. Never mind that he's not gay, that doesn't matter.
I am glad that our state will soon be rid of this crooked, hate-mongering, lying sack.
From today's Courier Journal blog:

"We reported earlier today that it looked like Gov. Ernie Fletcher was banking on the immigration if he were to salvage his reelection. We were wrong. It's gays.

After the Republican Party of Kentucky sent out robo-calls telling voters they better vote for Fletcher if they didn't want Kentucky to become another San Francisco, Republicans went on the road to hammer Democrat Steve Beshear and his running mate Dan Mongiardo for an endorsement they received from C-Fair, which supports equal rights for gays and lesbians.

At a campaign rally at the Kentucky Horse Park tonight in Lexington, Fletcher running mate Robbie Rudolph may have implied the Democratic ticket was gay when he asked the crowd, "Do you want a couple of San Francisco treats or do you want to reelect Gov. Ernie Fletcher?"Attorney General candidate Stan Lee referred to Beshear and Mongiardo as "San Francisco treats" as well."

I know no one needs any further motivation to not become complacent these last few days, but conduct like this by Fletcher continues to provide plenty of motivation to those who are disgusted with Fletcher to take nothing for granted. This kind of gay-bashing childish behavior should earn an especially severe rejection at the polls, one that will serve as a statement to future politicians. That statement will be that Kentuckians want real leaders, not cowardly hate-mongers who want to demonize any Kentucky minority.

(More after the jump)

Kentucky Democrats may be dropping like flies from schadenfreude overdose, but we're not cruel. So, to help our obviously pained Governor, I propose an intervention:

Ernie, sweetie: Being in the closet is nothing to be ashamed of. We all understand that some people feel it's necessary. But acceptable closet behavior includes discretion.

You and Robbie understand discretion, right? Your self-hatred must remain unspoken. The moment you express your self-hatred in public gay-bashing, your secret's out.

Public gaybashing = homophobia = closet.

But don't worry; the record-breaking rejection Kentucky voters are about to drop on your ass has nothing to do with your orientation.

And that's your real legacy, Ernie: Incompetence and corruption so blatant and thorough that even the last-minute revelation of your closeted homosexuality has virtually no effect.

Love to Glenna.

56 hours, 34 minutes until the polls close in Western Kentucky.

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass.

There's more: "Ernie Fletcher Gay?" >>

Total Rout in KY: 6 Days Out, Beshear Up 24 Points

The other day a dem friend sighed wistfully, "wouldn't it be great if Steve beat Ernie 80 to 20?" We all laughed. "Don't get greedy," we said.

Silly us. WHAS-11 trumpeted the news today: the latest Survey USA poll has Admitted Criminal Republican Incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher losing to Democratic challenger Steve Beshear 36-60.

As he has been doing since May, Beshear is once again winning big across the demographic and category board - everyone except Hispanics and Other races, republicans, conservatives and those who don't want a vote on expanded gambling.

Other than those 14 people, Steve's pretty solid.

Money's pouring into Beshear's campaign faster than even their thousands of volunteers can count it, county clerks are bracing for an avalanche of changed party registrations starting next Wednesday, and across the state there's only one question left:

If Ernie loses by 50 points, takes repug incumbent Secretary of State Trey Grayson down with him, demolishes the state repug party to the point that next year it loses its four Congressional seats, the State Senate AND Mitch McConnell, and turns Kentucky Blue for the next three generations ...

Will that satisfy Kentucky Democrats?

There's more: "Total Rout in KY: 6 Days Out, Beshear Up 24 Points" >>

Kentucky Governor's Race Tightens - And Just in Time

Incumbent Republican and Admitted Criminal Governor Ernie Fletcher has pulled within 15 points of Democratic challenger Steve Beshear in the latest Herald-Leader/WTVQ poll.

Democrats across the state are heaving sighs of relief. Beshear's 20-point lead since May has been making people nervous that the apparently inevitable Democratic sweep would keep people home on Election Day, allowing Ernie to squeak out a victory.

Last week, Survey USA had Beshear up by 20, and Democrats responded with an all-out GOTV effort. Democratic candidates are campaigning like they're 10 points down. Which is exactly where they'll be on November 6 if they don't get people off their duffs and to the polls.

November weather in Kentucky is nasty: cold, gray, with freezing rain. Getting people to vote in close elections is like squeezing disaster assistance out of FEMA; this year it's going to be next to impossible.

Ryan Alessi writes:

Del Ali, president of the Olney, Md.-based firm Research 2000 that conducted the poll, said with such a wide margin between the candidates, campaign cash to fund a final ad blitz becomes critical.

But the most recent campaign finance reports from early October showed that Beshear had nearly $1.7 million left in his bank account after paying in advance for several weeks’ worth of TV ads, while Fletcher’s campaign had $1.2 million on hand.

“This is over unless (Beshear) foolishly spends the money like no one else has and Fletcher spends the money strategically perfect,” Ali said.

(SNIP)

Ali compared Beshear’s strength in this election to former Louisiana Gov. Edwin Edwards’ famous quote that he could lose only if he was “caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.”

“I don’t even know if the live boy would hurt him,” Ali said of Beshear. “That’s where we are right now.”

Cross-posted at BlueGrassRoots.

There's more: "Kentucky Governor's Race Tightens - And Just in Time" >>

Rally for the Home Stretch

Mine eyes have seen the turning of Kentucky to the Blue,
Dems are stamping out the repugs - Ernie now and next Mitch too ...

It was an old-fashioned, barn-raising, tent-revival of a rally tonight, complete with fire-and-brimstone preaching from State Senator and former Governor Julian Carroll, last of the who-needs-a-microphone screaming Democrats.

More than 500 people packed the National Guard Armory in Frankfort to rally for the Democratic ticket that's about to sweep the November 6 election.

I've been attending Democratic campaign events in Kentucky since 2002, and this is the first time I've felt that swooping wave of confidence, that irresistible urge to burst out laughing and hug the nearest person out of sheer, giddy anticipation of victory.

It's not a sure thing, as speaker after speaker warned. Secretary of State candidate Bruce Hendrickson is neck-and-neck with incumbent Trey Grayson, and liberal dems are abandoning Hendrickson over his refusal to disavow the endorsement of wingnut freakazoid Frank Simon.

Even with gubernatorial challenger Steve Beshear, Attorney General candidate Jack Conway, Treasurer candidate Todd Hollenbach and Auditor Crit Luallen all up 15-20 poll points over their opponents, and more than $1.5 million up in fundraising, dems this time are taking nothing for granted.

"Ernie's thrown everything but the kitchen sink at us," Beshear told the crowd, "and we expect to see the kitchen sink before this is over."

But Beshear also promised that his victory will be only the beginning for Kentucky Democrats. Next year will see the return of the state Senate to Democratic control and Democrats back in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th Congressional Districts.

And Mitch is going down. (More after the jump.)

For 32 years, from 1971 to 2003, Kentucky Democrats goofed off as the state turned slowly red, ignoring the all-repug national elections as long as the state house stayed in their hands.

But Ernie kicked their complacent asses raw in 2003 when he took the Governor's mansion away. They lost the state Senate in 2004 and were staring into the Abyss of Political Irrelevancy.

It was exactly what they needed. It'll take more than a few electoral victories before Kentucky Democrats start taking a single vote for granted again.

Although they do still seem to be taking a whole constitutency for granted.

Still.

Of the 500 faces in the crowd tonight, fewer than a dozen were non-white.

Memo to Kentucky Democratic Party chair Jonathan Miller: the state's minority population is growing, and they're not going to hand you their votes because you're boyishly cute and have a nice smile.

Cross-posted at BlueGrassRoots.

There's more: "Rally for the Home Stretch" >>

Ernie Hits the Skids: No Money, No Votes, No Love

Incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher hit rock-bottom this week under the weight of three pieces of bad news:

• 27 days from Election Day, he's still 16 points behind Democratic Challenger Steve Beshear. Ernie's gained three points in the last month - at that rate, he'll be tied with Beshear about three months after Steve's inauguration.
• He raised $3.5 million in the four months since the primary. OK, Kentucky's a small and poor state, TV time's pretty cheap, that's not too bad - whoops! Beshear raised $4.9 million in the same period. That's a Democratic challenger out-fundraising the Republican incumbent by 40 percent.
• Two more Republicans - a former state senator and former state representative endorsed Beshear. In August, Republican Larry Hopkins, whom Fletcher succeeded as Sixth District Congressman, also endorsed Beshear.

Mark Hebert has the results of the latest poll. (More after the jump.)

Governor Fletcher has narrowed the margin in the governor's race, but not much.

The latest SurveyUSA/WHAS 11 poll shows Beshear leading Fletcher 56%-40%. Last month, Beshear led by 19 points in the same poll. The survey shows Beshear losing some support among male voters. In September, 58% of likely male voters planned to vote for Beshear. This month, it's 53% with Fletcher jumping up to 44% support among males. Beshear still has 59% of the female vote. In a strange twist, Fletcher loses support among folks who identify themselves as Republicans while gaining ground among Demcrats.

GOP voters: Beshear 30% Fletcher 65%
Dem. Voters: Beshear 76% Fletcher 22%

The only major bad news for Fletcher in this poll is that he's still far behind with 4 weeks to go. He gained among voters 50 years old and older and picked up support in the Louisville and western regions of the state, staying steady elsewhere.

Hebert neglects to mention that Ernie gained only three points after a month of non-stop attack ads that accused Beshear of drowning kittens, torturing puppies, throwing old people out into the street and inviting Osama bin Laden to Fancy Farm.

OK, they weren't quite that bad, but they were full of lies so blatant they failed to rise even to the level of truthiness. His anti-gambling ads are backfiring because a majority of voters want expanded gambling, and every time he accuses Beshear of causing the Kentucky Central collapse, yet another dignified Republican judge comes out of retirement to defend Steve and denounce Ernie's lies.

As for the money, anybody remember any time in the last 30 years that a Democratic challenger out-raised a Republican incumbent by a buck-forty, much less $1.4 million?

The endorsement situation is ugly, but the race not to be the last rat off the sinking Criminal Ship Ernie is worse.

Did I say three pieces of bad news? I meant four. Turns out Ernie's been illegally canoodling with the Republican Governor's Association on ads the RGA ran for him. The very exact same footage, complete with an "I (heart) UK" drawing in the background, was used by the RGA in ads for Louisiana gubernatorial candidate Bobby Jindal.

For Kentucky Democrats, there's only one question left:

What WILL I wear to the Inaugural Ball?

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass

There's more: "Ernie Hits the Skids: No Money, No Votes, No Love" >>

Democratic Tsunami Just One Month Away

UPDATE Below
If you're already tired of waiting for the likely Democratic campaign victories in 2008, have I got a treat for you.

Thirty days and about an hour from now, that sound you hear rising from the Bluegrass will be the victory cheer of Kentucky Democrats celebrating their sweep of almost every statewide office.

Yesterday, the campaign of incumbent republican governor Ernie Fletcher saw what Bluegrass Report called its hail mary pass fall short of the goal line.

For the past month, Fletcher has been trying to tar Democratic challenger Steve Beshear with the bankruptcy of Kentucky Central Life Insurance Co. 15 years ago.

Here's the Fletcher-Can't-Even-Read-Right-From-Rove's-Playbook part:

Fletcher is publicly blaming Beshear for the company's bankruptcy, even though it was friends and campaign contributors of Ernie himself who actually committed the crimes that caused the collapse, and it was Beshear's law firm that was hired to come in afterward and clean up the mess, eventually finding and restoring to cheated investors more than $300 million. And even though a 12-year-old, court-ordered report, released Saturday, concludes that Beshear did nothing wrong.

But Fletcher, who admitted breaking state law regarding hiring and firing state employees last year, is desperate to defuse Beshear's extremely successful attacks on Ernie's severe ethical problem. For the past two months, Beshear has maintained a 20-point lead on Ernie, despite Ernie flooding the airways with commercials attacking Beshear.

In fact, Kentuckians hate Ernie so much, they're giving the Democrats in down-ticket races the same double-digit margin. (More after jump.)

Democrat Jack Conway has a 17-point lead over freakazoid wingnut Stan Lee for the open Attorney General seat.

Democratic incumbent Auditor Crit Luallen has a 20-point lead over Linda Greenwell, who lost big to Crit four years ago.

Democrat Todd Hollenbach IV has a 20-point lead over Melinda Wheeler for the open Treasurer seat.

Democrat and political neophyte Bruce Hendrickson started out in May at least 20 points behind incumbent Secretary of State Trey Grayson. But as Ernie failed to make any inroads against Beshear, Trey's numbers started to fall. Insiders now put him at 10 points ahead max, and moving in the wrong direction.

Supposed Democrat David Williams (NOT the republican president of the state senate) is challenging incumbent Commissioner of Agriculture Richie Farmer and is such a horrible candidate and so far behind that he's not even mentioned in Kentucky Democratic Party campaign materials. Farmer is a former University of Kentucky basketball star who would win re-election if his party were Hizbollah. Rumor has it that Farmer is deeply regretting not switching to the Democratic Party in January 2007, and will probably do so in January 2008. Richie's no dummy.

Yes, we're having quite a fun fall here in Kentucky. Best October since about 1999, when Democrat Paul Patton was coasting to re-election as Governor.

With the Capitol in strong Democratic hands come December 11, republicans on the 2008 Kentucky ballot are pretty much doomed. And that bodes extremely well for the nation.

Kentucky has picked the winner of the Presidential Election every time since 1964; only Missouri has a longer record.

You're welcome.

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass.

UPDATE, 5:32 a.m. An earlier version of this post gave Richie Farmer's title as Secretary of Agriculture. Kentucky has no such animal. Farmer is the Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture. Post has been corrected.

There's more: "Democratic Tsunami Just One Month Away" >>

Republican Floodgates Open; Race to Endorse Democrat Beshear Begins

UPDATE Below

Bluegrass Report has been predicting for weeks that Republican officials would soon start endorsing Democrat Steve Beshear over incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher.

Most of us thought the first one would be Lt. Governor Steve Pence, who rejected Fletcher in August 2006, after Fletcher was indicted for violating state hiring laws.

But Pence wimped out last month with a pale refusal to endorse Ernie. Instead, first out of the gate is former state representative Steve Nunn.

"I believe in good government," Nunn said. "I believe we need to elect people who are going to govern and the core group around the governor and the governor himself haven't demonstrated an ability to do that or to deserve another four years."

Nunn, who lost his seat last year, said he has no plans to become a Democrat. "I think Republicans should be for good government and this Republican is for change."

Steve Nunn lost his seat in the state House last year for lack of wingnuttery - in other words, he put his constituents and the good of the Commonwealth ahead of his party and his own personal ambition.

Which is exactly what his father, Louie B. Nunn, did as Kentucky's last Republican Governor almost 40 years ago.

Louie Nunn is excoriated by state employees to this day for firing Democratic state workers and replacing them with Republicans. But Louie Nunn single-handedly saved the Kentucky economy from sinking to Fourth-World levels by creating the state's first sales tax.

The five-percent tax was labeled "Nunn's Nickel," and it cost Louie - only 47 when his term ended - any hope of future political office in Kentucky.

Louie had a political resurrection of sorts in the late '90s, when he once again championed an unpopular cause to help the state he served. Louie lent publicity, credibility, and some humor to the hemp-legalization movement by escorting a truckload of legal Canadian hemp to the front of the Capitol in Frankfort.

Steve is no fan of Ernie - he lost to Fletcher in the republican gubernatorial primary in May 2003 - but he's also his Daddy's boy. Louie died in January 2004, but his legacy of doing the right thing and damn the consequences lives on in his son.

Steve Nunn's endorsement of Steve Beshear may start not only a rush of Kentucky Republicans to the Democrat's side, but also some new thinking among those same Republicans about abandoning Mitch McConnell in 2008.

No one would call Steve Nunn a leader of the Kentucky Republican Party.

But I will call Steve Nunn this: The Last Kentucky Republican With Integrity.

UPDATE, 9:40 a.m.: Ben Carter of BlueGrass Roots points out that Governor Bert Combs established the first Kentucky sales tax of 3 percent. Louie Nunn increased it to five percent. Apologies for the fact-checking failure, and thanks to Ben. If I may point out, the sales tax was perhaps the least of Comb's accomplishments. He desegregated public accommodations in Kentucky, formed the first state Human Rights Commission, improved education, expanded the state highway system and established the merit system for state employees. I, too, would rank Bert Combs close to the top of the list of great Kentucky Governors.

There's more: "Republican Floodgates Open; Race to Endorse Democrat Beshear Begins" >>

Next Round Against the Religious Wrongs

If you worry that even with the republican party imploding left, right and center, the rovians will once again use their "Family Values" bag of tricks to pull out a victory in 2008, keep an eye on the Kentucky Governor's race now in its last 60 days.

Gay marriage, the ten commandments, prayer in schools - the republicans are preparing to launch all the Golden Oldies against the Democrats in October.

But this time, finally, there are definite signs that Kentucky Democrats have learned not only how to fight back effectively, but actually attack the repugs on their own "Family values" ground.

Republican incumbent Ernie Fletcher, with a record of incompetence that rivals Smirky's - except for the dead people - has been reduced to running on the "we're christians and they're not" line.

It started in June, when Fletcher reversed his previous stand on expanding gambling on Kentucky. Through the May primary, Fletcher had said he would not oppose a referendum on expanding gambling, though he wasn't personally in favor of it.

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Steve Beshear has been running since February on a promise to bring expanded gambling to Kentucky. Some polls have shown that a majority of Kentuckians support expanded gambling, and more than 80 percent favor a referendum on the issue.

After Beshear won the May Democratic primary, the first post-primary polls showed Beshear beating Fletcher by as much as 40 points (Beshear has since dropped to an 18-point lead.)

Ernie flipped and came out four-square against expanded gambling, and against even allowing a referendum.

Let's upack that flip: First, if Ernie had a record of accomplishments to run on, he could afford to maintain his previous neutrality. But his record being one of unmitigated incompetence, illegality and immorality, he desperately needs an issue.

Second, Ernie gains precisely zero new votes with this changed position. Voters who oppose expanded gambling on moral grounds are already republicans who wouldn't vote for a Democrat under threat of waterboarding. Democratic voters, like me, who oppose expanded gambling on the reality-based grounds that casinos are a really stupid way to grow an economy, are desperate to get rid of Ernie and are prepared to hold our noses and vote for Beshear regardless.

Third, and this is the fun part, Ernie's flip may actually lose him some votes from his base. Among the republican opponents of expanded gambling are a significant number who strongly favor a referendum. Some may actually be deluded that they can defeat that measure, but others may want to get their opposition to expanded gambling on the record, or just make their voices heard.

So Ernie has really stepped in it. He claims to oppose expanded gambling on moral grounds, but also opposes giving those who agree with him to chance to vote it down.

A month of expensive TV commercials by Ernie on the horrors of expanded gambling has gotten him nowhere in the polls, and that's why Kentucky Democrats are preparing for an avalanche of "Democrats (heart) Satan" commercials, probably starting in October.

But Beshear and the other Democrats on the state ticket have already seized the high moral ground in a way that the party's 2008 candidates nationwide would do well to study and emulate. Some examples:

On Gambling: Democrats taunted Fletcher during his speech at the Fancy Farm picnic that his faith-based opposition to gambling exempts Kentucky's iconic horse racing industry and the extremely popular church- and community organization-based bingo industry. In fact, bingo took place just a few yards from where Fletcher was condemning gambling. If Ernie thinks gambling is so horrible, Democrats asked, why doesn't he propose shutting down the race tracks and the bingo halls?

On the Ten Commandments: Back in the early '80s, when Beshear was Attorney General, he issued an opinion that yes, the U.S. Supreme Count decision banning publicly-funded religious displays does, indeed, apply in Kentucky. Fletcher claims this proves Beshear, the son of a Baptist lay minister, is Satan's Agent.

Beshear says this: My father used to say that it doesn't matter where you hang the Ten Commandments on the wall; it matters how you keep the Ten Commandments in your heart and how you follow them in your life. Ernie Fletcher has admitted to breaking the laws of the Commonwealth. My father would not consider that to be living the Ten Commandments.

On Prayer in Schools: While he was Attorney General, Beshear issued another opinion that yes, the U.S. Supreme Court decision banning spoken prayer in public schools does, indeed, apply in Kentucky. Fletcher claims this proves Beshear, the son of a Baptist lay minister, is Satan's Agent.

I have not yet heard Beshear speak directly to this issue, but it's an absolute gimme for liberals. Not that the religious wrongs give a damn about the New Testament, but just for the record, here is Jesus on public prayer (Matthew 6)

And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites [are]: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.

But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly.

On General Morality: Until recently, repugs have been so effective in painting Democrats as evil, atheistic minions of Satan, that last year a substitute teacher in my home town who admitted to a fourth-grade class that she was a Democrat, was asked by one child, innocently and seriously: "Why don't you believe in God?"

Kentucky's unions aren't taking that crap lying down. They formed a 527 to stop Bruce Lunsford from winning the Democratic gubernatorial primary in May and now they're airing radio spots to attack the republicans' "Christian values." From Bluegrass Report:

The deliberately folksy spot takes aim at Governor Fletcher (R) and attorney general nominee Stan Lee (R) on "Christian values." The ad criticizes both for "implying they are God's chosen candidates" and then reminds voters that Christian values also includes things like soaring health care costs, affordable education, and good jobs -- issues that neither candidate seems much interested in talking about.

Unions being smarter than your average bear, they are running these ads not in the secular-humanist, Democratic-majority enclaves of Lexington and Louisville, but in the Fundamentalist capitals of south-central, eastern and western Kentucky.

On Gay Marriage: This one killed Dan Mongiardo's nearly successful challenge to Senator Jim Bunning in 2004, and could threaten Jack Conway's race for Attorney General. Not because either Mongiardo or Conway are in favor of gay marriage, or even civil unions, but because both men (Conway is married; Mongiardo engaged) are the subject of repug whispering campaigns that they are gay.

Nice try, but the worm appears to be turning on gay issues even in Kentucky. People are just tired of the fear- and hate-mongering, and starting to admit they just don't care whether someone is gay.

No poll numbers for you, but a pretty good anecdote: Met a 70-year-old woman this weekend who talked about her still-healthy and still-sharp 91-year-old aunt. The one issue on which the aunt really hates republicans is gay marriage. Sayeth the aunt: "I don't care who sticks what where!"

There are two keys to success in these Democratic attacks on the repugs anti-christian values:

1) Authenticity. As in NOT hypocrisy. The Kentucky Democrats making religious points are genuine Christians and have been all their lives. In their professional and personal lives, they live New Testament, Jesus-directed values. When they speak on the subject of religious values, they sound authentic because they are.

2) Democratic/Progressive/Liberal Values. Kentucky's unions are making the critical point that traditional Democratic values ARE genuine Christian values, and that republican values are not. This is critical. Democrats who apologize for traditional Democratic values as not being Christian enough lose (see Harold Ford.) Democrats who stand up proudly for their Democratic values win (see John Yarmuth.)

I have raged for three years now against Democrats attempting to win over "Family Values" voters by pandering to the religious wrongs. It never, never, EVER works. Members of the religious wrong would rather vote for Larry Craig or Mark Foley than any Democrat, no matter how "religious."

Moderate republicans and independents, however, are open to a Democratic candidate with the courage of her convictions, even if those convictions are secular humanist. Such courage might actually get all those non-voting Democrats off the sofa on Election Day.

Standing proud for Democratic values worked last November for John Yarmuth in Louisville. We'll see in 59 days if attacking repugs on their own "Family Values" ground works for Beshear-Mongiardo, Conway and the other Democrats statewide.

There's more: "Next Round Against the Religious Wrongs" >>

Mitch's Re-election Troubles Go National

No, unfortunately the Moonie Times has not found compromising photos to support rumors of Mitch's man-love tendencies.

But it has managed to stumble across a few Kentucky Republicans who have serious doubts about the Senate Minority Leader's re-election chances.

Too bad one of them is Larry Forgy, a perennial losing Republican candidate who is being talked up as a primary challenger to Mitch.

“The average Kentuckian feels we are giving away this country with both hands — jobs are going, essentially the primacy of the people who made this country great is going, and Mitch McConnell is lumped with the Washington types on this,” Mr. Forgy said.

But even a county party chair has his doubts, albeit anonymously.

A county party chairman who supports Mr. McConnell but asked not to be identified said Mr. McConnell's re-election next year is uncertain — despite the Capitol Hill clout he brings Kentucky — unless he shows the folks back home he understands their distrust of Washington on enforcing immigration laws.

Wingnut stalwart Tom Buford was willing to go on the record - but only in general "incumbents have it hard" terms.

“The immigration issue is trouble for everyone in central Kentucky,” Republican state Sen. Tom Buford said. “The Iraq war is always difficult for all incumbents, even if they support pulling the troops out. It is a no-win situation when elections are at risk.”

Mr. McConnell registered a 48 percent approval rating last month in a SurveyUSA poll.

The weird part is the article's emphasis on immigration, which has supposedly split the state party and left people angered at Mitch's failure to publicly oppose Smirky's immigration bill.

No question that Kentucky Republicans hate and fear the dusky-hued and accented as much as Republicans anywhere, but even in a major election year here, immigration languishes at the bottom of the issue list.

The governor's race is all gambling, all the time, down-ticket repugs are running on being Not-Ernie, and the General Assembly is busy writing a rubber check for $300 million to Peabody Coal - apparently just because.

Right now, Mitch's re-election hinges on three factors over which he has little, if any control:

- The Governor's race. If Democrat Steve Beshear wins, he'll galvanize Kentucky Democrats for the 2008 election.
- The Iraq War. We've lost 62 Kentucky men and women in Iraq, and each new casualty increases the discontent exponentially.
- His Democratic opponent. At the moment, the field of potential candidates is weak, but a Beshear victory could change that quickly by opening the money spigots.

Hat tip to Bluegrass Report.

There's more: "Mitch's Re-election Troubles Go National" >>

Only 12 Weeks Left for Beshear to Lose His 18-Point Lead Over Fletcher

Kentucky Democrats are rejoicing over the latest poll showing Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee Steve Beshear 18 points ahead of Incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher.

And if they don't shut up and get to work I'm gonna take 'em all out back and beat the crap out of 'em.

In the last month, Beshear's lead has eroded six points. At this rate, come election day it'll be a dead heat.

Don't get me wrong; Beshear's running a great campaign, and Ernie keeps tripping over his own feet.

First Ernie chose to make the campaign all about Beshear's support for expanded gambling, flipping his own previous neutral stance on casinos to reveal a born-again opposition. Gambling is eeeeeeeevvvviiilll, Ernie shouted.

Really? Beshear responded. Then why haven't you shut down the state lottery, closed the racetracks and outlawed church bingo?

Casino interests are mobsters and criminals who will turn all our children into drug addicts and prostitutes, Ernie cried.

Really? BluegrassReport blogger Mark Nickolas asked. Then why have you taken thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from the likes of Harrah's, Caesar's and the American Gaming Association?

Not my fault! Ernie whined. It's not like I solicited them.

Oops. Turns out Ernie sent out begging letters to those very eeeeeevvvvviilll criminal gambling interests in hopes they would buy into his $1,000-a-ticket golf fundraiser.

Ernie's one break was U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's better-late-than-never decision to campaign for Ernie, after abandoning Ernie during the primary.

Oops. Ernie paid Mitch back by refusing to endorse Mitch for re-election to the Senate next year.

In February, 12 weeks before the primary, pundits and "experts" - including yours truly - were declaring Ernie dead, with no chance to beat Mitch favorite Anne Northup. In May, he left her in the dust.

Kentucky Democrats lost the governor's mansion to Ernie in 2003 because they couldn't believe that a republican could take away the place they'd owned for 32 years.

This year, Kentucky Democrats can't believe Ernie can overcome an 18-point deficit.

Fletcher's a political moron. He's also the undeserving recipient of exceptional political luck.

Since last November, Kentucky's 2007 gubernatorial race has been held up as a harbinger for the 2008 presidential race.

Let us hope it does not also become a painful reminder of that old but still true saying:

Never Understimate the Ability of Democrats to Snatch Defeat From the Jaws of Victory.

There's more: "Only 12 Weeks Left for Beshear to Lose His 18-Point Lead Over Fletcher" >>

Mitch at Fancy Farm: Stumbo Draws First Blood

UPDATE Below

Never let it be said that Greg Stumbo doesn't come out swinging. The Kentucky Attorney General is close to the worst possible choice to challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for re-election next year, but Greg drew first blood at the 127th annual "Pork, Pie and Politics" Fancy Farm picnic yesterday. The Lexington Herald-Leader's Jack Brammer reports:

McConnell never mentioned his bid for re-election next year. But Democratic Attorney General Greg Stumbo, who has formed an exploratory committee for a possible run against McConnell, brought several dogs with him to make light of McConnell's famous campaign ad against U.S. Walter "Dee" Huddleston in the 1980s, in which he used hounds to search for Huddleston. Stumbo's white polo shirt said he is "hunting for a real U.S. Senator."

McConnell's only decent line was a shot at Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear.

McConnell noted that he defeated Beshear in a U.S. Senate race in 1996 and that Beshear ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1987.

"It's actually good to see that Kentucky Democrats embrace recycling," McConnell said.

Yep, and you're headed for the compost pile, Mitch.

The real fireworks were between Beshear and Incumbent Criminal Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Brammer again:

The two candidates for governor stumped for votes as a heavily partisan crowd whooped for their favorites and heckled their opponents. Fletcher employed costumed characters in the crowd to underscore his comments. Fletcher said Attorney General Greg Stumbo and other Democrats could not stop him even with their "political witch hunt." On cue, a young woman dressed in a witch's black outfit stood up in the audience as Fletcher pointed to her.

He was referring to a lengthy investigation of hiring in his administration that led to three misdemeanor charges against Fletcher that later were dropped when he and Stumbo reached an agreement.

Fletcher later pointed to a character dressed like Moses. "He must be looking for the Ten Commandments, but he won't find them in our courthouses or schools," the governor said.

He was referring to Beshear's decision as attorney general from 1979 to 1983 when Beshear issued advisory opinions that removed copies of the Ten Commandments from public-school classrooms. At the time, Beshear said he had to follow constitutional and U.S. Supreme Court guidelines.

"I obeyed the law," Beshear said yesterday. "As governor I would obey the law. And wouldn't that be a great change to have a governor who obeys the law?" To illustrate his point, about 15 Beshear supporters who were labeled "Ernie's Chain Gang" marched around the crowd while dressed in prison garb and handcuffs.

Fletcher countered with "Easy Money Steve," who threw out casino chips ridiculing Beshear's position that Kentuckians should decide at the polls whether to allow expanded gambling.

Fletcher, who initially said he would not support or oppose a legislative move for casino gambling but now maintains expanded gambling will never occur while he is governor, said casino gambling in the state would lead to an increase in crimes, divorces and bankruptcies.

Beshear accused Fletcher of using scare tactics on the gambling issue, noting that the Fancy Farm picnic's main purpose is to raise funds through charitable gaming for St. Jerome Catholic church.

He called Fletcher hypocritical for not calling for the repeal of church bingo, the state lottery and parimutuel wagering.

After their speeches, Fletcher said "there is a world of difference" between casino gambling and other forms of gambling now in Kentucky.

In his speech, Beshear pounded away at the "failed leadership" in Frankfort the last four years.

Mixing a tourist slogan for Las Vegas with his lack-of-leadership claims, Beshear said, "What's going on in Frankfort right now shouldn't stay in Frankfort any longer." He then rattled off some figures that showed Kentucky in recent years has been dropping in economic development rankings for states.

And the prize for low blow predictably goes to one of the state's slimiest wingnuts.

The two candidates' running mates also did not shy away from each other. Robbie Rudolph, Fletcher's running mate, said Beshear and state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo of Hazard are "a match made in Vegas."

Rudolph said, "Fancy Dan likes young ...." Rudolph then paused, saying he is glad his daughter recently married.

Rudolph's comments were a reference to Mongiardo's engagement to Allison Patrick of Frankfort. There is an age difference of about 25 years between Mongiardo, 47, and Patrick. Mongiardo said they will not marry until after the November election.

Nice double-play there, implying Mongiardo is both gay and a child molester. Classy, Robbie. Very classy.

UPDATE, 7:17 p.m.: Ditch Mitch has great Fancy Farm coverage. (No permalink - scroll down.) And Hillbilly Report has pictures!

There's more: "Mitch at Fancy Farm: Stumbo Draws First Blood" >>

Only 16 Weeks Left for Beshear to Lose 23 Points

No, I'm not trying to jinx the Democrat apparently destined to bury Gov. Ernie Fletcher in a historic landslide.

I'm trying to keep Kentucky Democrats from throwing premature victory parties, ignoring the campaign, forgetting to vote and waking up on Nov. 7 to discover that once again the Democrats have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

SurveyUSA's latest poll on the governor's race has Steve Beshear leading Fletcher 59 to 36, with only five percent undecided.

Check out the details - Beshear leads Fletcher in every single sub-category (age, race, sex, region, politics, etc.) except Republicans, Conservatives and people who oppose expanded gambling. And even 43 percent of people who oppose expanded gambling support Beshear, who has made expanded gambling a centerpiece of his campaign.

Beshear sits comfortably with more than 50 percent in every category he leads.

For pity's sake, Beshear even leads Fletcher among Republicans who voted in the primary for one of Fletcher's opponents: 57 percent of Anne Northup's voters and 40 percent of Billy Harper's voters support Beshear.

But here's the killer: 14 percent of people who voted for Fletcher in the primary now support Beshear.

Of course, the poll also has four percent of the people who voted for Beshear in the primary now supporting Fletcher, but that polling point was probably a UK fraternity prank.

Kentucky political campaigns traditionally don't really get going until after Labor Day, but that five percent undecided has got Democrats waaaaaay over-excited. Even if you grant Fletcher all the undecideds plus the entire five-point margin of error, they babble, Beshear still wins by 8 points.

If the election were held today, that is.

Beshear's a smart, savvy guy with minimal baggage who's run a near-perfect campaign since January. No Democrat in the state would have a better chance of knocking Fletcher off his throne.

It's still almost 16 weeks. 110 days. 2,640 hours. 158,400 minutes.

And every one counts.

There's more: "Only 16 Weeks Left for Beshear to Lose 23 Points" >>

Victory in Kentucky

Former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear will take on Gov. Ernie Fletcher in November for the Governorship of Kentucky.

With 99.9 percent of precincts reporting, Fletcher has 50.1 percent of the GOP vote and Beshear has 40.9 percent of the Democratic vote - both exceeding the minimum required to avoid a runoff.

Fletcher successfully rose from the political dead to beat Anne Northup by a convincing 13.6 points and prove, once again, that Kentucky republicans are way dumber than we think they are.

But it was Beshear who really pulled off the miracle, trouncing five opponents and beating his nearest rival by 19.5 points.

Almost 20 points over Traitor and Fake Dem Bruce Lunsford, who outspent Beshear five to one.

Let me say that again. Beshear beat by 20 points an opponent who outspent him five to one.

Come November, Ernie is toast.

Tomorrow, details on the winners, the losers, the politically dead, the embarassingly stupid, and the people who should sit the fuck down and shut the fuck up, but probably won't.

There's more: "Victory in Kentucky" >>

Down the Straight and Headed for the Wire

Polls close in the eastern half of Kentucky in 10 minutes, and in the western half in 70 minutes. (Yeah, it's weird and annoying, but two time zones is what we get for being a horizontal state so close to the Mississippi River.)

Yes, I voted, and one of my votes is already turning out to be a huge mistake. Of the three Democrats running for Treasurer, I voted for Todd Hollenbach IV, only to get online and find out from a Bluegrass Report commenter that Hollenbach is an anti-choice wingnut.

Serves me right for not doing my homework. Sorry, sorry, sorry. Learn from my mistake, everybody - make sure you know who you're voting for before you vote.

So far, it's looking like Dirty Ernie, our corrupt and none-too-bright incumbent Governor Fletcher, is going to take the three-way GOP primary with more than 40 percent and avoid a runoff against former Louisville Congress critter Anne Northup.

That's good news for Democrats, as virtually any of the six Democrats running could beat Fletcher with half a campaign.

Latest polls have former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear with a 32-23 lead over Traitor and Fake Democrat Bruce Lunsford, but Lunsford could still deny Beshear the 41 percent he needs to avoid a runoff on June 26.

I'll be heading to the Beshear-Mongiardo party shortly, and will blog the results as soon as possible after 7 p.m. EDT.

Meanwhile, Bluegrass Report and Polwatchers will be posting updates.

There's more: "Down the Straight and Headed for the Wire" >>

And Then There Were Six

Much as I would love this post to refer to the withdrawal from the presidential race of the three republican evolution-deniers – Huckabee, Brownback and Tancredo – and the spontaneous head-explosion of Rudy Guiliani due to terminal abortion confusion, I’m afraid it doesn’t.

The cleanest and most progressive candidate in the Kentucky Democratic Gubernatorial Primary has dropped out. State Treasurer Jonathan Miller announced this afternoon that he is withdrawing and endorsing former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear.

Two weeks out from the May 22 primary, Miller couldn’t seem to crack double-digits in the polls. The latest poll, from Survey USA last week, showed that not only had Miller dropped from 8 percent to 7 percent, but Party Traitor Bruce Lunsford had jumped from 20 percent to 29 percent.

Given that Lunsford is leading the Democratic candidates despite being a Republican, Miller staying in the race created the very real possibility that November’s general election would lack an actual Democratic candidate.

If you’re thinking Lunsford is the Joe Lieberman of Kentucky – stop. Compared to Lunsford, Lieberman is a paragon of Democratic loyalty. More on Lunsford's perfidy below.

Beshear is the second choice of a lot of Miller supporters and other progressives, including Change for Kentucky/Democracy for America of Kentucky.

But the anti-Lunsford vote is still split among Beshear (23 percent) and four others: former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry at 18 percent, State House Speaker Jody Richards at 9 percent, attorney and gadfly Gatewood Galbraith at 6 percent and demolition contractor Otis Hensley at 1 percent.

Don’t look for either Galbraith or Hensley to quit – they’ve both finished statewide races with less than 10 percent of the vote before, and it doesn’t seem to bother them.

Steve Henry is getting slammed in both the polls (dropping 4 points in two weeks) and the press, as we get to enjoy a new Henry-is-even-more-corrupt-than-we-thought story with our morning coffee just about every day.

That wouldn’t be such a handicap if Henry weren’t defending himself with the most obvious, lame and stupid series of lies since Alberto Gonzales last testified. At this rate, Henry may end up with fewer votes than Otis.

But he won’t drop out. He’s married to a former Miss America, dadgummit, and that means he gets to be governor!

That leaves Jody Richards. I’ve never been a Richards fan – he’s nowhere near bright and he lets the Republican Senate Majority Leader beat him up at will. Ask anybody in Kentucky what’s the best thing about Jody Richards and they’ll all say the same thing:

“He’s nice.”

Yep, just what you want in a candidate going up against the republican attack machine.

Jody: If you must be nice, then be nice to the Democratic voters of Kentucky and drop out now!

Miller’s and Richards’ supporters added to Beshear’s, plus half the undecideds, will put Beshear over the top.

I'm no fan of Beshear's (his lobbying for predatory payday loan companies makes me sick), but he's by far the best candidate left in the race. And that's despite the handicap of his running mate: State Senator Dan Mongiardo, who won the lasting enmity of most Kentucky progressives by sponsoring our lovely gay hate amendment in 2004.

Yes, it matters very much whom the Democrats nominate, even though any one of them could beat incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher in November. Well, maybe not Henry.

It's a close call as to which is more important: defeating Fletcher, or defeating Lunsford.

Lunsford’s a multi-millionaire (he sank $8 million into his 2003 primary run before quitting), supposedly willing to put his personal fortune into the general election. That’s why some seriously deluded/desperate Democrats are claiming he has the best chance to beat Fletcher.

Bruce Lunsford made his millions off the backs of two groups: the poor, sick old people he threw out of his nursing homes to make room for richer patients, and the poor, trusting Kentucky families who lost their life savings investing in Lunsford’s company before he bankrupted it.

His vicious ads attacking State Attorney General Ben Chandler in the 2003 gubernatorial primary fatally wounded Chandler in the general election, especially after Lunsford dropped out of the primary and endorsed Ernie Fletcher.

Read that again, slowly: A Democratic primary candidate endorsed the Republican primary winner. After promising to support the Democratic primary winner.

Ernie won, and gave Lunsford a nice job. Since 1995, Lunsford has given more than $40,000 to Republican candidates, and less than $12,000 to Democratic candidates.

Now he wants to be the Democratic nominee.

Ernie Fletcher has been one of the worst governors in Kentucky history. Cleaning up the mess he’s created will take years if not decades and billions of dollars Kentucky doesn’t have. We can’t afford another four months, never mind another four years of Ernie Fletcher.

But a lot of Democrats will be voting for Fletcher – if Bruce Lunsford gets the nomination.

There's more: "And Then There Were Six" >>