Monday, September 17, 2007

Blackwater Update

I seriously doubt they go any damned where.

The number of Blackwater hired guns is around 20,000 - that would mean another entire Surge™ at a time the current shell-game (with live shells!) is drawing down by necessity. It would take eight to ten combat brigades to replace those 20,000 armed mercs, and we don't have 'em. Period.

So what does it all mean? It means that Blackwater will pay a steep fine, offer an apology, feign contrition, and the license will be reinstated.

Now - go fetch your tinfoil hat before you read any further. Especially if you, like me, think that there is at least a possibility that a trap was laid and Blackwater walked into it. Think about it this way...if you want a permanent arrangement, rig the game so that you are "owed one."

How do you leverage people? One of the classic ways is to give them a break after they royally screw the pooch. Blackwater kills people all the time, and a goodly number of them are civilians. So what makes this instance of civilian death outrage worthy when none in the past have been?

Besides that, throwing 20,000 contractors out of the country is simply untenable. Logistically, strategically and operationally. What about the installations and personnel unguarded? Blackwater has a lot of powerful clients in Iraq, and you can bet your bottom dollar that the negotiations are underway already to get their license reinstated.

Wait and see. They are going nowhere.