Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Looking ahead to Super Tuesday for the GOP

Actually seeing a bit of useful information on Faux News, it’s worth noting how many of the Feb. 5 primaries, on the Republican side only, are winner-take-all. The biggie here is California, but the list also includes Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Utah. In other words, about 80 percent or so of the GOP delegates on this date are on a winner-take-all basis, even with a plurality and not an absolute majority. (Tennessee is winner-take-all with a majority.)

So, on the GOP side, a run of the table is possible. That’s why even hapless old Rudy would be dumb to fold before then. If he can take populous New York and New Jersey, he’s clearly back in the race. Assuming he does at least reasonably well in Florida before that, this means California will be a bloodbath par excellence.

Hell, Mitt Romney will probably pledge to personally fund the entire state budget deficit if Ahhhnold will endorse him.

After that, most the remaining states that hold primaries are winner-take-all on the GOP side, including Texas March 4. Since Rudy has Gov. Rick Perry’s endorsement (for what it’s worth, coming from a guy re-elected with less than 40 percent of the vote), if Rudy has any pulse after the February Super Tuesday, well, then, he’ll stay in until March.

So, here’s hoping Rudy actually does do well in Florida — really well, since it, too, is winner-take-all. If he wins, we’ve got a four-man race through at least mid-March if not all the way to the GOP convention.