McCain scares me & other tales of a not-quite swing state

While andgarden over at Daily Kos is all a twitter about the possibility that Kansas could be turning into a swing state, I find myself having nightmares about John McCain.

Of course, there are many reasons to shudder at the thought of a McCain presidency. Right now, my concerns are political.

As I sit under that big Kansas sky, I find that I share andgarden's amazement over some of the Kansas poll numbers on head-to-head match-ups. Whether it's Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama facing off against Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney, first the Democrat is ahead (or nearly tied), then the Republican, then the Dem.

The advantage swings wildly back and forth from month to month. (Click on "T" in the top left of each table to see the tracking graphs.)

While this is good news for a newly resurgent Kansas Democratic Party, I still don't see the commanding Democratic leads (even in the upswings) that would make me dub us a swing state. Let's say that we're trending D, but not quite there -- at least not yet.

What's scary, though, are the monthly tracking graphs showing how McCain fares against Clinton and Obama. No matter who he's pitted against, McCain wins, and he does it easily.

Although most think of Kansas as a Republican state, nearly a third of the state's voters have registered as independent. If McCain is that strong out here when Obama and Clinton are faring well against the other Republicans, what might happen in other states?

Meanwhile E.J. Dionne assures me that McCain's biggest obstacle is his own party. Hope so.

Stay tuned.

Cross posted from In This Moment.