Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Poll Intoxication in Kentucky

SUSA's got new Kentucky election polls, and everybody's freaking out.

One shows McCain leading Obama in Bush-loving Kentucky by an anemic 12 points.

The other shows Democrat Bruce Lunsford trailing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by a surprising four points.

Surprising, that is, only to everyone who has forgotten the Rasmussen poll in May that showed Lunsford ahead of McConnell. Everybody freaked out over that one, too.

It's JUNE, people; polls four-and-a-half months out are worse than useless.

I think Obama's going to do much better in Kentucky than anyone is predicting - IF he actually shows up to campaign. If he doesn't show up, McCain will bury him here by at least 20 points. But it's going to be either a McCain landslide or Obama in a squeaker - McCain by 12 is ridiculous.

As for Lunsford, four points down before Mitch even starts attacking is bad news for Bruce.

I believe that 2008 is going to be a historic, watershed, paradigm-creating, tradition-breaking, change-life-as-we-know-it election.

But if we start going berserk over every poll months before people even start paying attention, we won't make it to Labor Day.

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass.