Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Summer's Over - It's Poll Time!

It's after Labor Day, so put away your white shoes and check out these polls!

A new set of polls has good news for Barack Obama in four key battleground states:

• In Iowa, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004, a new CNN poll has Obama ahead of John McCain by a 55%-40% margin.

• In Minnesota, which went narrowly to Kerry, CNN has Obama up 53%-41%.

• In Ohio, where President Bush's narrow 2004 win sealed his overall victory, the CNN poll gives Obama a 47%-45% edge, within the ±3.5% margin of error.

• In North Carolina, which hasn't voted Dem since 1976, a Democracy Corps (D) poll gives John McCain a narrow advantage of 47%-44% -- and gives Democratic Senate challenger Kay Hagan a 50%-45% lead over GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole.

If Obama's leads in Iowa and Ohio were to hold through November, it would be impossible for John McCain to win unless he could pick up some Kerry states.

To help you play along at home, here's an interactive Electoral Vote map that lets you manipulate the states to produce dozens of scenarios. Start with the 2004 results, and keep adding states to Kerry's total. See how fast Obama beats McCain to 270 and keeps on going!

Cross-posted at Blue in the Bluegrass.