Down the Straight and Headed for the Wire

Polls close in the eastern half of Kentucky in 10 minutes, and in the western half in 70 minutes. (Yeah, it's weird and annoying, but two time zones is what we get for being a horizontal state so close to the Mississippi River.)

Yes, I voted, and one of my votes is already turning out to be a huge mistake. Of the three Democrats running for Treasurer, I voted for Todd Hollenbach IV, only to get online and find out from a Bluegrass Report commenter that Hollenbach is an anti-choice wingnut.

Serves me right for not doing my homework. Sorry, sorry, sorry. Learn from my mistake, everybody - make sure you know who you're voting for before you vote.

So far, it's looking like Dirty Ernie, our corrupt and none-too-bright incumbent Governor Fletcher, is going to take the three-way GOP primary with more than 40 percent and avoid a runoff against former Louisville Congress critter Anne Northup.

That's good news for Democrats, as virtually any of the six Democrats running could beat Fletcher with half a campaign.

Latest polls have former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear with a 32-23 lead over Traitor and Fake Democrat Bruce Lunsford, but Lunsford could still deny Beshear the 41 percent he needs to avoid a runoff on June 26.

I'll be heading to the Beshear-Mongiardo party shortly, and will blog the results as soon as possible after 7 p.m. EDT.

Meanwhile, Bluegrass Report and Polwatchers will be posting updates.

There's more: "Down the Straight and Headed for the Wire" >>

And Then There Were Six

Much as I would love this post to refer to the withdrawal from the presidential race of the three republican evolution-deniers – Huckabee, Brownback and Tancredo – and the spontaneous head-explosion of Rudy Guiliani due to terminal abortion confusion, I’m afraid it doesn’t.

The cleanest and most progressive candidate in the Kentucky Democratic Gubernatorial Primary has dropped out. State Treasurer Jonathan Miller announced this afternoon that he is withdrawing and endorsing former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear.

Two weeks out from the May 22 primary, Miller couldn’t seem to crack double-digits in the polls. The latest poll, from Survey USA last week, showed that not only had Miller dropped from 8 percent to 7 percent, but Party Traitor Bruce Lunsford had jumped from 20 percent to 29 percent.

Given that Lunsford is leading the Democratic candidates despite being a Republican, Miller staying in the race created the very real possibility that November’s general election would lack an actual Democratic candidate.

If you’re thinking Lunsford is the Joe Lieberman of Kentucky – stop. Compared to Lunsford, Lieberman is a paragon of Democratic loyalty. More on Lunsford's perfidy below.

Beshear is the second choice of a lot of Miller supporters and other progressives, including Change for Kentucky/Democracy for America of Kentucky.

But the anti-Lunsford vote is still split among Beshear (23 percent) and four others: former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry at 18 percent, State House Speaker Jody Richards at 9 percent, attorney and gadfly Gatewood Galbraith at 6 percent and demolition contractor Otis Hensley at 1 percent.

Don’t look for either Galbraith or Hensley to quit – they’ve both finished statewide races with less than 10 percent of the vote before, and it doesn’t seem to bother them.

Steve Henry is getting slammed in both the polls (dropping 4 points in two weeks) and the press, as we get to enjoy a new Henry-is-even-more-corrupt-than-we-thought story with our morning coffee just about every day.

That wouldn’t be such a handicap if Henry weren’t defending himself with the most obvious, lame and stupid series of lies since Alberto Gonzales last testified. At this rate, Henry may end up with fewer votes than Otis.

But he won’t drop out. He’s married to a former Miss America, dadgummit, and that means he gets to be governor!

That leaves Jody Richards. I’ve never been a Richards fan – he’s nowhere near bright and he lets the Republican Senate Majority Leader beat him up at will. Ask anybody in Kentucky what’s the best thing about Jody Richards and they’ll all say the same thing:

“He’s nice.”

Yep, just what you want in a candidate going up against the republican attack machine.

Jody: If you must be nice, then be nice to the Democratic voters of Kentucky and drop out now!

Miller’s and Richards’ supporters added to Beshear’s, plus half the undecideds, will put Beshear over the top.

I'm no fan of Beshear's (his lobbying for predatory payday loan companies makes me sick), but he's by far the best candidate left in the race. And that's despite the handicap of his running mate: State Senator Dan Mongiardo, who won the lasting enmity of most Kentucky progressives by sponsoring our lovely gay hate amendment in 2004.

Yes, it matters very much whom the Democrats nominate, even though any one of them could beat incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher in November. Well, maybe not Henry.

It's a close call as to which is more important: defeating Fletcher, or defeating Lunsford.

Lunsford’s a multi-millionaire (he sank $8 million into his 2003 primary run before quitting), supposedly willing to put his personal fortune into the general election. That’s why some seriously deluded/desperate Democrats are claiming he has the best chance to beat Fletcher.

Bruce Lunsford made his millions off the backs of two groups: the poor, sick old people he threw out of his nursing homes to make room for richer patients, and the poor, trusting Kentucky families who lost their life savings investing in Lunsford’s company before he bankrupted it.

His vicious ads attacking State Attorney General Ben Chandler in the 2003 gubernatorial primary fatally wounded Chandler in the general election, especially after Lunsford dropped out of the primary and endorsed Ernie Fletcher.

Read that again, slowly: A Democratic primary candidate endorsed the Republican primary winner. After promising to support the Democratic primary winner.

Ernie won, and gave Lunsford a nice job. Since 1995, Lunsford has given more than $40,000 to Republican candidates, and less than $12,000 to Democratic candidates.

Now he wants to be the Democratic nominee.

Ernie Fletcher has been one of the worst governors in Kentucky history. Cleaning up the mess he’s created will take years if not decades and billions of dollars Kentucky doesn’t have. We can’t afford another four months, never mind another four years of Ernie Fletcher.

But a lot of Democrats will be voting for Fletcher – if Bruce Lunsford gets the nomination.

There's more: "And Then There Were Six" >>

Do We Really Need A Governor?

Good Grief, this is a depressing primary season, and no, I'm not talking about the presidential race.

Here in Kentucky, the two Democrats topping the polls for the gubernatorial primary May 22 are the Traitor and the Crook.

Bruce Lunsford, a self-made millionaire who made his fortune by kicking poor old people out of his nursing homes and cheating thousands of investors out of their life savings, is running on the promise that he'll run Kentucky the way he ran his businesses.

God help us.

Lunsford's also claiming to be a "real Democrat" even though he dropped out of the 2003 primary to endorse the Republican nominee - now governor - Ernie Fletcher. He's spent the last four years giving tens of thousands of dollars to Republican candidates.

He's the Traitor, but he's leading the seven Democratic candidates with 20 percent in the most recent polling.

Tied with Lunsford at 20 percent in the polls is the Crook: former Lieutenant Governor Steve Henry, who is currently under investigation by a special prosecutor for playing fast and loose with campaign funds. Henry is married to a former Miss America, Heather French, and is an orthopedic surgeon who pleaded guilty a few years ago to playing fast and loose with Medicare reimbursements.

There are loyal Democrats in this state who will seriously vote for the Republican if either Henry or Lunsford wins the primary.

If they don't kill themselves first.

Another former Lieutenant Governor, Steve Beshear, is at 15 percent in the latest Survey USA poll. But he's getting pounded by Lunsford and others for his support, back in the '90s, of "payday lenders" who prey on poor working people who have no alternatives to paying 400 percent annual interest or more to get cash in advance of their paychecks.

State House Speaker Jody Richards is at 12 percent according to Survey USA, but he's in such bad financial straits he and his running mate, former Secretary of State John Y. Brown III, are reduced to begging their family members (scroll down to 7th graf) for money. Jody's been a no-show at candidate events lately, apparently recovering (or in hiding) from a legislative session that left the House Democrats looking even more feckless than usual. Oh, yeah, his campaign manager defected.

State Treasurer Jonathan Miller, Hope of the Progressives, is languishing at 8 percent. He's doing pretty well with fundraising, and has his third TV ad out, but his poll numbers have people writing him off five weeks before the election.

For pity's sake, Miller's tied with perennial candidate and professional maniac Gatewood Galbraith, who could actually take this primary if the predictions of record-breakingly low turnout are correct.

Listen: people live for politics in this state. In lots of places, you can't even get cable, and politics is the only entertainment. Yet five weeks before the primary, nobody's talking about the election. It's all the crummy spring weather and Don Imus.

It's going to come down to who can get their 14 loyal supporters up off their butts Tuesday morning and out to the polls.

If it rains on primary day, we might have a seven-way tie - three votes each.

There's more: "Do We Really Need A Governor?" >>

Dirty Ernie and the Seven Ponies - Part 2

(Read Part One)

Let's say you're a Kentucky Democratic voter. You're stomping your hooves for the chance to kick out Ernie Fletcher, who beat your man Chandler for the governorship in 2003. You're in the voting booth in the May primary, looking at the seven names listed as Democratic nominees for governor. You can't believe your eyes. One of them is Bruce Lunsford. The exact same Bruce Lunsford who dropped out of the democratic primary in 2003 because polls showed he was losing bad to Chandler. The same Bruce Lunsford who then turned around and ENDORSED Ernie Fletcher, the republican nominee and eventual winner. The same Bruce Lunsford every breathing Kentucky Democrat blames for Chandler's loss to Ernie.

So here's the question: How much money will it take to persuade you to vote for Bruce Lunsford?

If you answered "there is not enough money on earth or in heaven," congratulations! You just graduated from the How Not To Piss Off Voters You Will Need Later class Greg Stumbo flunked out of.

Stumbo is Lunsford's running mate, and opinion is about evenly divided as to whether Greg has taken complete leave of his senses or has a major trick up his sleeve that no one can figure out. Stumbo is currently Attorney General, and could have cruised to re-election. He could have made a credible run for governor on his own. Instead he attaches himself to a coward, turncoat and criminal whose name will be forever attached to one of the biggest corporate financial disasters in Kentucky history.

Opinion's leaning more to the "gone nuts" theory since Greg started threatening union leaders who refused to endorse Lunsford. It'd be funny if it weren't downright scary.

Jody Richards is the Speaker of the House who is running with John Y. Brown III, former Secretary of State and son of the former governor. Richards also lost to Chandler in the 2003 primary, but at least he had the guts to stick it out until the votes were counted. Richards apparently doesn't have a campaign website, but he does have a long record of swearing to House colleagues that he would not run for governor in 2007. Jody's not the sharpest knife in the drawer, and doesn't exactly impress on the stump. He also doesn't seem to know what to do with a large Democratic majority. Mostly, he lets the Republican minority slap him around pretty good.

You want fun? You want guns? You want drugs? You want a candidate who shows up stoned to community meetings and talks about how stoned he is? Gatewood Galbraith is your man! I'm probably going to vote for him, if only because he'd be non-stop entertainment, of which Frankfort could use some. His running mate is Mark Wireman, an engineer from eastern Kentucky (to balance Gatewood being a Lexington lawyer) who just retired from the Transportation Cabinet. Nobody ever heard of Wireman before, but as the Transportation Cabinet was the Central Cesspool of Ernie's Merit Mess, we're all agog to hear what Mark might know.

Otis Hensley is an Eastern Kentucky demolition contractor who's running with the nickname "Bullman" and the promise to "run the Bull out of Frankfort." He's even got a picture on his home page of himself riding a giant statue of a bull. He got a grand total of 9,372 votes in the 2003 primary, but it hasn't given him a big head. His web site is actually pretty detailed on numerous policy issues. And it reads like it was written by a real person, as opposed to a campaign consultant - funny and self-deprecating but serious. His running mate's name is Richard Robbins. The Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Billy Reed handicaps Hensley's chances at "a zillion to one." That's not fair. There are fewer than two million voters in Kentucky.

Some of you political science majors out there may be wondering what happens if none of the above lovelies (including yesterday's three) gets a majority of the primary vote on May 22. Yes, Kentucky does have a runoff provision. If no candidate gets at least 40 percent of the primary vote, the top two vote-getters face each other in a runoff.

It hasn't been used since it was established in 1992, but it looks likely to get a workout this year. There's been a lot of talk during the General Assembly this year about repealing the runoff provision. The big problem is the millions of dollars that the individual counties will have to pay to set up a second election just 35 days after the first one. County Clerks, who run elections and will have to come up with the money, are dead-set against it and want the provision nixed. But the goo-goos object that it's not fair to eliminate the runoff this close to the primary, after candidates filed while perhaps counting on a runoff.

But runoffs are tricky. Just when you think not having a runoff is going to help you, you end up on election night a close second to someone you might have beaten in a runoff.

So members of the General Assembly are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, filing contradictory bills and changing sides, sure of nothing except they've got just a few days left to completely screw up the most wide-open election in Kentucky history.

And if that's not enough to turn you off Kentucky politics for life, you can get your fix at Pol Watchers and Bluegrass Report.

There's more: "Dirty Ernie and the Seven Ponies - Part 2" >>